IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v71y2020ics1049007820301275.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does peace boost stock prices? Evidence from the Korean stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Inho
  • Yoo, Shiyong

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact on the Korean stock market of the inter-Korean summits in 2000, 2007, and 2018 and the North Korea–United States summit in 2018 using the event study methodology. Three portfolios, which have high exposures to North Korea risks are constructed: stocks related to Kaesong Industrial Complex (KS portfolio), stocks related to inter-Korean economic cooperation (IEC portfolio), and stocks related to the defense industry (DEF portfolio). Empirical analysis show that the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of KS, IEC, and DEF portfolios react positively or negatively to each summit. These results imply that peace does not simply play a role in boosting stock prices and that the stock price reflects all available information related to the summits, including the process and agreement of the summits' discussion and political context. The robustness test (performed by changing the event day to the announcement rather than the agreement) shows that KS and IEC portfolios reflect positive expectation and that the DEF portfolio reflects negative expectation in the financial market. Although each CAR pattern varies, it is true that the stock price reflects all available information of summits swiftly. In other words, our paper shows that the efficient market hypothesis holds in the Korean stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Inho & Yoo, Shiyong, 2020. "Does peace boost stock prices? Evidence from the Korean stock market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:71:y:2020:i:c:s1049007820301275
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2020.101247
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007820301275
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2020.101247?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahern, Kenneth R., 2009. "Sample selection and event study estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 466-482, June.
    2. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    3. Bechtel, Michael M. & Schneider, Gerald, 2010. "Eliciting Substance from ‘Hot Air’: Financial Market Responses to EU Summit Decisions on European Defense," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 199-223, April.
    4. In Huh & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2018. "Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 55-82, March.
    5. Binder, John J, 1998. "The Event Study Methodology since 1969," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 111-137, September.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Byung-Yeon Kim & Gérard Roland, 2014. "How credible is the North Korean threat?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(3), pages 433-459, July.
    8. Corrado, Charles J. & Zivney, Terry L., 1992. "The Specification and Power of the Sign Test in Event Study Hypothesis Tests Using Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 465-478, September.
    9. Campbell, Cynthia J. & Wesley, Charles E., 1993. "Measuring security price performance using daily NASDAQ returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 73-92, February.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    12. Konchitchki, Yaniv & O'Leary, Daniel E., 2011. "Event study methodologies in information systems research," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 99-115.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Myeong Hyeon & Kim, Young Min & Yang, Kisung, 2022. "Understanding BOXPI — Industry portfolio perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Yinan Wan, 2024. "The impact of Facebook-Cambridge Analytica data scandal on the USA tech stock market: An event study based on clustering method," Papers 2402.14206, arXiv.org.
    2. Yan Zeng & Josie McLaren, 2015. "The impact of large public sales of Government assets: empirical evidence from the Chinese stock markets on a gradual and offer-to-get approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 137-173, July.
    3. Marie-Anne Cam & Vikash Ramiah, 2014. "The influence of systematic risk factors and econometric adjustments in catastrophic event studies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 171-189, February.
    4. Ding, Li & Lam, Hugo K.S. & Cheng, T.C.E. & Zhou, Honggeng, 2018. "A review of short-term event studies in operations and supply chain management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 329-342.
    5. Teresa Valeria Parise & Vijay Shenai, 2018. "The Value Effect of Financial Reform on U.K. Banks and Insurance Companies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-28, September.
    6. Florian Manz & Birgit Müller & Dirk Schiereck, 2020. "The pricing of European non-performing real estate loan portfolios: evidence on stock market evaluation of complex asset sales," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 90(7), pages 1087-1120, August.
    7. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Sattar A. Mansi & Oumar Sy, 2023. "Event studies in international finance research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(2), pages 344-364, March.
    8. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    9. Bayly, Nicholas & Breunig, Robert & Wokker, Chris, 2023. "Female Board Representation and Corporate Performance: A Review and New Estimates for Australia," IZA Discussion Papers 16617, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Hirsch, Stefan & Finger, Robert, 2023. "Effects of the debate on glyphosate's carcinogenic risk on pesticide producers' share prices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Chia-Lin Chang & Shu-Han Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2018. "An Event Study Analysis of Political Events, Disasters, and Accidents for Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-77, November.
    12. Sebastien Bradley & Estelle Dauchy & Makoto Hasegawa, 2018. "Investor valuations of Japan’s adoption of a territorial tax regime: quantifying the direct and competitive effects of international tax reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 581-630, June.
    13. Xu, Mingli & Yang, Wei & Huang, Zhixiong, 2021. "Do investor relations matter in the tourism industry? Evidence from public opinions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 923-933.
    14. Furdui Călin & Șfabu Dorina Teodora, 2023. "The European Banks Under the Shock of the Russian Invasion of 2022: An Event Study Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 68(1), pages 62-77, April.
    15. Szymon Okoń, 2012. "Investor Reaction to Mandatory Offers on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(2), June.
    16. Rommel, J. & Neuenfeldt, S. & Odening, M., 2010. "Markteffekte medienwirksamer Lebensmittelskandale – eine Ergebnisstudie," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    17. Pedro Antonio González & José Luis Gallizo, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Stock Market by Industrial Sector in Chile: An Adverse Overreaction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, November.
    18. Kiesel, Florian & Ries, Jörg M. & Tielmann, Artur, 2017. "Reprint of “The impact of mergers and acquisitions on shareholders' wealth in the logistics service industry”," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 261-277.
    19. Ana Paula Serra, 2002. "Event Study Tests: A brief survey," FEP Working Papers 117, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    20. Abreu, José Filipe & Gulamhussen, Mohamed Azzim, 2013. "The stock market reaction to the public announcement of a supranational list of too-big-to-fail banks during the financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 49-72.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Summit; Event study; Efficient market hypothesis; Cumulative abnormal return; North Korea;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:71:y:2020:i:c:s1049007820301275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.