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Can Asia sustain an export-led growth strategy in the aftermath of the global crisis? Exploring a neglected aspect

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  • Jimenez, Gonzalo Hernandez
  • Razmi, Arslan

Abstract

Employing panel data for Asian countries to distinguish between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth, we find that the proportion of a country's manufactured exports that is destined for industrialized countries, a variable largely ignored by existing studies, is robustly associated with growth. This finding has crucial implications given the expected deceleration of industrialized country import growth in the coming years. Most importantly, and contrary to some recent studies, prospects for continued growth, now centered on domestic tradable consumption or on developing countries as markets, may be limited. South–South trade may not be a good substitute for South–North trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimenez, Gonzalo Hernandez & Razmi, Arslan, 2013. "Can Asia sustain an export-led growth strategy in the aftermath of the global crisis? Exploring a neglected aspect," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 45-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:45-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2013.08.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Joerg Mayer, 2017. "How Could the South Respond to Secular Stagnation in the North?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 314-335, February.
    2. Bastos, Paulo & Silva, Joana, 2010. "The quality of a firm's exports: Where you export to matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 99-111, November.
    3. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    4. Eu Chye Tan & Chor Foon Tang, 2016. "Economic Growth Of Selected East Asian Countries: A Macroeconomic View Of Their Dependence On The Us And Europe," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(05), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Mukesh Kumar & Nargis & Azeema Begam, 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected South Asian Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Kollie, Genesis B., 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in ECOWAS: A Panel Data Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    7. Gonzalo Hern�ndez Jim�nez & Arslan Razmi, 2014. "Latin America after the global crisis: the role of export-led and tradable-led growth regimes," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-741, September.
    8. Mohamed Chakroun & Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi, 2021. "Does export upgrading really matter to economic growth? Evidence from panel data for high‐, middle‐ and low‐income countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5584-5609, October.
    9. Amjad, Y. & Naseeem, N.A.M & Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Masron, tajul & Kriskkumar, K., 2018. "Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia: New Evidence Using Disaggregated Data of Exports," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(3), pages 167-179.
    10. Zheng, Qing Yuan & Law, Teik Hua & Wong, Shaw Voon & Ng, Choy Peng, 2024. "Relative improvements between roads and railways and economic performance: A panel data analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 87-96.
    11. Ng, Choy Peng & Law, Teik Hua & Wong, Shaw Voon & Kulanthayan, S., 2017. "Relative improvements in road mobility as compared to improvements in road accessibility and economic growth: A cross-country analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 24-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; Tradable-led growth; Global imbalances; Industrialization; Capital accumulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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