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Nonlinear Taylor rules: evidence from a large dataset

Author

Listed:
  • Ma Jun

    (Department of Economics, College of Social Sciences and Humanities, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA)

  • Olson Eric

    (College of Business and Economics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506, USA)

  • Wohar Mark E.

    (College of Business, University of Nebraska-Omaha and Loughborough University, Omaha, NE 68182, UK)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate nonlinear Taylor rules over the 1986–2008 sample time period and augment the traditional Taylor rule by including principal components to better model Federal Reserve policy. Including principal components is useful in that they extract information about the overall economy from multiple economic indicators in a statistically optimal way. Additionally, given that uncertainty may influence Federal Reserve decisions, we incorporate an uncertainty index in the reaction function of the Federal Reserve. We find substantial evidence that the Federal Reserve responded to increases in macroeconomic uncertainty by cutting the Federal Funds rate over the sample period. We also find evidence that the Federal Reserve responded aggressively to increases in capacity utilization, especially when the inflation rate was above 2%.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma Jun & Olson Eric & Wohar Mark E., 2018. "Nonlinear Taylor rules: evidence from a large dataset," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:22:y:2018:i:1:p:14:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2016-0082
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Guerra & Steven Kamin & John Kearns & Christian Upper & Aatman Vakil, 2024. "Latin America's non-linear response to pandemic inflation," BIS Working Papers 1209, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Long, Shaobo & Zuo, Yulan & Tian, Hao, 2023. "Asymmetries in multi-target monetary policy rule and the role of uncertainty: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 278-296.
    4. Christou Christina & Naraidoo Ruthira & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy reaction to uncertainty in advanced economies: evidence from quantile regressions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Akyurek, Cem & Kutan, Ali M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 343-355, October.
    6. Çekin, Semih Emre & Hkiri, Besma & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "The relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in advanced economies: Evidence from time- and frequency-domains," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 70-87.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; principal component; Taylor rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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