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Structural Breaks in Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from Transition Countries

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  • Hakan Yilmazkuday

Abstract

This paper investigates the relation between the important announced turning points in the monetary policies and the estimated structural break dates in the Taylor rules of three transition countriesâthe Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. Although the important announced turning points starting in the late 1990s, especially the introduction of an inflation-targeting regime, can be observed in the estimated Taylor rules of the Czech Republic and Poland with some implied lags due to the monetary transmission mechanism, the same conclusion cannot be reached for Hungary. Several robustness analyses are in support of these results.

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  • Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2008. "Structural Breaks in Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from Transition Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 87-97, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:44:y:2008:i:6:p:87-97
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, January.
    2. Hoda Selim, 2012. "Exploring the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy in Egypt," Working Papers 733, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
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    7. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Isabella Moder, 2016. "Modeling the evolution of monetary policy rules in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-27.
    8. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Ishak Demir, 2014. "Keep your Word: Time-varying Inflation Targets and Inflation Targeting Performance," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 160-182, March.
    9. Baaziz, Yosra & Labidi, Moez & Lahiani, Amine, 2013. "Does the South African Reserve Bank follow a nonlinear interest rate reaction function?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 272-282.
    10. Akyurek, Cem & Kutan, Ali M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 343-355, October.
    11. Zoltán Jakab & István Kónya, 2016. "An Open Economy DSGE Model with Search-and-Matching Frictions: The Case of Hungary," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(7), pages 1606-1626, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    2. baaziz, yosra, 2016. "Les règles de Taylor à l’épreuve de la révolution : cas de l’Égypte [The Taylor rule to the test of the revolution: the case of Egypt]," MPRA Paper 69779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Ishak Demir, 2014. "Keep your Word: Time-varying Inflation Targets and Inflation Targeting Performance," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 160-182, March.
    4. Hoda Selim, 2012. "Exploring the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy in Egypt," Working Papers 733, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    5. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Isabella Moder, 2016. "Modeling the evolution of monetary policy rules in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-27.
    6. István Ábel & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Macroeconomic Risks and Monetary Policy in Central European Countries: Parallels in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-26, November.
    7. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    8. Baaziz, Yosra & Labidi, Moez & Lahiani, Amine, 2013. "Does the South African Reserve Bank follow a nonlinear interest rate reaction function?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 272-282.
    9. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
    10. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    11. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, January.

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