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Probabilistic forecasting of the wave energy flux

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  • Pinson, P.
  • Reikard, G.
  • Bidlot, J.-R.

Abstract

Wave energy will certainly have a significant role to play in the deployment of renewable energy generation capacities. As with wind and solar, probabilistic forecasts of wave power over horizons of a few hours to a few days are required for power system operation as well as trading in electricity markets. A methodology for the probabilistic forecasting of the wave energy flux is introduced, based on a log-Normal assumption for the shape of predictive densities. It uses meteorological forecasts (from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts – ECMWF) and local wave measurements as input. The parameters of the models involved are adaptively and recursively estimated. The methodology is evaluated for 13 locations around North-America over a period of 15months. The issued probabilistic forecasts substantially outperform the various benchmarks considered, with improvements between 6% and 70% in terms of Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS), depending upon the test case and the lead time. It is finally shown that the log-Normal assumption can be seen as acceptable, even though it may be refined in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinson, P. & Reikard, G. & Bidlot, J.-R., 2012. "Probabilistic forecasting of the wave energy flux," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 364-370.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:93:y:2012:i:c:p:364-370
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.12.040
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