IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v88y2011i11p4014-4023.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wind power forecasting uncertainty and unit commitment

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, J.
  • Botterud, A.
  • Bessa, R.
  • Keko, H.
  • Carvalho, L.
  • Issicaba, D.
  • Sumaili, J.
  • Miranda, V.

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the representation of wind power forecasting (WPF) uncertainty in the unit commitment (UC) problem. While deterministic approaches use a point forecast of wind power output, WPF uncertainty in the stochastic UC alternative is captured by a number of scenarios that include cross-temporal dependency. A comparison among a diversity of UC strategies (based on a set of realistic experiments) is presented. The results indicate that representing WPF uncertainty with wind power scenarios that rely on stochastic UC has advantages over deterministic approaches that mimic the classical models. Moreover, the stochastic model provides a rational and adaptive way to provide adequate spinning reserves at every hour, as opposed to increasing reserves to predefined, fixed margins that cannot account either for the system’s costs or its assumed risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, J. & Botterud, A. & Bessa, R. & Keko, H. & Carvalho, L. & Issicaba, D. & Sumaili, J. & Miranda, V., 2011. "Wind power forecasting uncertainty and unit commitment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 4014-4023.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:11:p:4014-4023
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.04.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261911002339
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.04.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amjady, Nima & Keynia, Farshid, 2010. "A new spinning reserve requirement forecast method for deregulated electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1870-1879, June.
    2. Tuohy, Aidan & Meibom, Peter & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2009. "Unit commitment for systems with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Luickx, Patrick J. & Delarue, Erik D. & D'haeseleer, William D., 2008. "Considerations on the backup of wind power: Operational backup," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(9), pages 787-799, September.
    4. Delarue, Erik & D'haeseleer, William, 2008. "Adaptive mixed-integer programming unit commitment strategy for determining the value of forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(4), pages 171-181, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Abrell & Friedrich Kunz, 2015. "Integrating Intermittent Renewable Wind Generation - A Stochastic Multi-Market Electricity Model for the European Electricity Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 117-147, March.
    2. Hughes, Larry, 2010. "Meeting residential space heating demand with wind-generated electricity," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1765-1772.
    3. Tim Felling & Björn Felten & Paul Osinski & Christoph Weber, 2023. "Assessing Improved Price Zones in Europe: Flow-Based Market Coupling in Central Western Europe in Focus," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(6), pages 71-112, November.
    4. Bingke Yan & Bo Wang & Lin Zhu & Hesen Liu & Yilu Liu & Xingpei Ji & Dichen Liu, 2015. "A Novel, Stable, and Economic Power Sharing Scheme for an Autonomous Microgrid in the Energy Internet," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-24, November.
    5. Després, Jacques & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick & Noirot, Isabelle, 2015. "Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 486-495.
    6. Bellekom, Sandra & Benders, René & Pelgröm, Steef & Moll, Henk, 2012. "Electric cars and wind energy: Two problems, one solution? A study to combine wind energy and electric cars in 2020 in The Netherlands," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 859-866.
    7. Glotić, Arnel & Zamuda, Aleš, 2015. "Short-term combined economic and emission hydrothermal optimization by surrogate differential evolution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 42-56.
    8. Xiaohua Zhang & Jun Xie & Zhengwei Zhu & Jianfeng Zheng & Hao Qiang & Hailong Rong, 2016. "Smart Grid Cost-Emission Unit Commitment via Co-Evolutionary Agents," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-13, October.
    9. Goudarzi, Arman & Swanson, Andrew G. & Van Coller, John & Siano, Pierluigi, 2017. "Smart real-time scheduling of generating units in an electricity market considering environmental aspects and physical constraints of generators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 667-696.
    10. Andrychowicz, Mateusz & Olek, Blazej & Przybylski, Jakub, 2017. "Review of the methods for evaluation of renewable energy sources penetration and ramping used in the Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast 2015. Case study for Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 703-714.
    11. Mazzola, Simone & Astolfi, Marco & Macchi, Ennio, 2015. "A detailed model for the optimal management of a multigood microgrid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 862-873.
    12. Felten, Björn & Weber, Christoph, 2018. "The value(s) of flexible heat pumps – Assessment of technical and economic conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1292-1319.
    13. Misconel, S. & Leisen, R. & Mikurda, J. & Zimmermann, F. & Fraunholz, C. & Fichtner, W. & Möst, D. & Weber, C., 2022. "Systematic comparison of high-resolution electricity system modeling approaches focusing on investment, dispatch and generation adequacy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. Morales, J.M. & Mínguez, R. & Conejo, A.J., 2010. "A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 843-855, March.
    15. Mohandes, M. & Rehman, S. & Rahman, S.M., 2011. "Estimation of wind speed profile using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 4024-4032.
    16. De Vos, K. & Stevens, N. & Devolder, O. & Papavasiliou, A. & Hebb, B. & Matthys-Donnadieu, J., 2019. "Dynamic dimensioning approach for operating reserves: Proof of concept in Belgium," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 272-285.
    17. Govind Joshi & Salman Mohagheghi, 2021. "Optimal Operation of Combined Energy and Water Systems for Community Resilience against Natural Disasters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
    18. Keane, A. & Tuohy, A. & Meibom, P. & Denny, E. & Flynn, D. & Mullane, A. & O'Malley, M., 2011. "Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2925-2934, May.
    19. Zhu, Xu & Yang, Jun & Pan, Xueli & Li, Gaojunjie & Rao, Yingqing, 2020. "Regional integrated energy system energy management in an industrial park considering energy stepped utilization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    20. Leisen, Robin & Radek, Julian & Weber, Christoph, 2024. "Modeling combined-cycle power plants in a detailed electricity market model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:11:p:4014-4023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.