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Real-time estimates of Swiss electricity savings using streamed smart meter data

Author

Listed:
  • Mari, Alessandro
  • Remlinger, Carl
  • Castello, Roberto
  • Obozinski, Guillaume
  • Quarteroni, Silvia
  • Heymann, Fabian
  • Galus, Matthias

Abstract

The gas crisis of 2022 put pressure on electricity prices in Europe, prompting the Swiss government to launch a national energy-saving campaign. To effectively quantify potential savings and guide timely decision-making, this campaign called for rigorous near-real-time modeling of changes in electricity consumption habits. The proposed approach estimates national electricity consumption at an hourly resolution across three consumer categories using thousands of streamed smart-meter load curves. These curves are aggregated to produce a national consumption estimate using scaling factors that account for differences among Swiss distributors. These factors are derived by regressing historical annual consumption against public socio-economic variables. The obtained national load curve is adjusted for the influence of weather conditions, the calendar and global trends, in order to compare different periods with a reference scenario. Such external effects are modeled with splines using Generalized Additive Models, trained on a 5-year dataset, to precisely measure each contribution on the national consumption and evaluate the consumers’ response to the saving plan. The results indicate a reduction of approximately 4.8% of the adjusted electricity consumption during winter 2022–2023, equivalent to an average monthly savings of 246 GWh, distributed across residential, service, and industrial sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Mari, Alessandro & Remlinger, Carl & Castello, Roberto & Obozinski, Guillaume & Quarteroni, Silvia & Heymann, Fabian & Galus, Matthias, 2025. "Real-time estimates of Swiss electricity savings using streamed smart meter data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PC).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:377:y:2025:i:pc:s0306261924019202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124537
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