The future of coal-fired power plants in China to retrofit with biomass and CCS: A plant-centered assessment framework considering land competition

Retrofitting as biomass and coal co-firing power plants with carbon capture and storage (BCP-CCS) is essential in the decarbonization of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) for China that plays a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality globally. Many studies have conducted a purpose-oriented analysis to explore the retrofit-potential for BCP-CCS, ignoring the actual competition among CFPPs for availability of biomass residues and access to carbon sequestration sites. Thus, from the perspective of individual CFPPs, it's still uncertain how BCP-CCS retrofit will influence the incremental cost and carbon emission reduction. This study proposes a ternary-matched coupling of “biomass residues-CFPPs-sequestration sites” at plant scale, analyzing available biomass and carbon-sequestration resources around each CFPP separately and carrying out cost-benefit assessments. Results suggest that the net carbon emissions of all CFPPs become neutral at 30 km without biomass shortages, indicating BCP-CCS has the potential to assist China's coal-fired power sector reach carbon-neutrality. But for negative emission target, it is suggested that within biomass-collection radii of 30 km, 13 % of CFPPs can't achieve co-firing ratios above 10 %. Achieving the full retrofit potential of all CFPPs will inevitably face biomass resource competition and demand energy crops as supplementary fuel. It's also found that only 16 provinces possess sufficient marginal lands to grow energy crops. The incremental levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of each CFPP is highly collected with surrounding biomass and carbon sequestration resources, the highest of which reach above 450 CNY/MWh in the southernmost regions lacking both. A delayed retrofit time could help decrease the incremental LCOE but damage the carbon reductions greatly. Also, the critical carbon price needs to be 400–500 CNY/t to help balance the retrofit cost for 70 % CFPPs at various co-firing ratios. This study highlighted the importance of availability for biomass resources and implemented a high-resolution assessment of BCP-CCS deployment at plant-level, which could provide a detailed guidance for the present and future decarbonization of CFPPs in China.