Dynamic management of ground thermal response uncertainty through temporal analysis of parameter sensitivity

Accurately estimating the dimensionless ground thermal response factor (g-function) is critical for the design and operation of geothermal energy systems. This process, however, is fraught with uncertainties stemming from the difficulty in controlling on-site geometric parameters and estimating thermal properties through field experiments. The relative contributions of these parameters to response uncertainty change temporally as the response progresses. Thus, understanding this temporal sensitivity variation is crucial for effective response uncertainty management. To address this, we conducted transient global sensitivity analyses. Regardless of borefield setups, ground thermal properties were key factors in thermal response uncertainty. However, their influence decreased from the late-mid term as borehole radius and borehole distance became more significant in single-borehole and multi-borehole setups, respectively. This time-varying relative sensitivity suggests that prioritizing parameters to reduce response uncertainty depends on the temporal characteristics of the ground load. To demonstrate this, we systematically halved the uncertainty for each parameter and examined the resultant change in the fluid temperature uncertainty for a dynamic ground load scenario. Notably, prioritizing parameters with high early-response sensitivity significantly reduced fluid temperature uncertainty. These findings highlight the need for dynamic uncertainty management strategies in geothermal system design and operation. For dynamic load profiles utilizing the ground as a heat source or sink, prioritizing parameters with high sensitivity in the early- to mid-term is crucial. Conversely, for long-term storage applications, focusing on parameters with high sensitivity in the mid- to long-term response becomes essential.