Empirical evidence on the characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions from household appliances operation in the Pearl River Delta region, China

Household appliances are major sources of residential electricity consumption and carbon emissions. Guangdong province, especially the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is of great importance for achieving a low-carbon economy in China. This study constructs a carbon emission model based on a questionnaire survey (covering nine cities with 3514 samples) to identify the potential energy consumption and carbon emissions from five typical household appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, and personal computers) in the PRD region and their key influencing factors. To verify the robustness of the model, a Monte Carlo method was employed for sensitivity analysis. The findings indicate that in 2020, the total electricity consumption and carbon emissions from household appliances were 130.21 billion kWh and 59.78 MtCO2, respectively, mainly influenced by the electricity structure, population size, and consumption behavior. Air conditioner cooling is a major source of electricity consumption and carbon emissions, especially in Guangzhou (8.52 MtCO2) and Dongguan (6.54 MtCO2). The study constructs scenario analyses based on identified key variables to explore the coupling effect of changes in the proportion of energy-saving air conditioners and the proportion of non-fossil energy generation on emission reduction. The results demonstrate that, compared to a business-as-usual scenario, merely increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy generation could reduce emissions by 1.45 to 6.38 MtCO2 by 2025, with higher proportions yielding more significant reductions. Additionally, the study analyzes the decoupling level between economic growth and carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020 through the Tapio-LMDI model. The results reveal that the PRD region has achieved relative decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions, but further emission reduction measures are required to attain absolute decoupling. This study advocates for an optimized energy framework and electricity resource allocation to foster sustainable consumption. It recommends guiding the public towards scientific electricity use, establishing a balanced incentive and restraint system for residential consumption, promoting energy-saving products, advancing carbon inclusion systems, and intensifying environmental education.