IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v374y2024ics0306261924014016.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-time scales prediction of aggregated schedulable capacity of electric vehicle fleets based on enhanced Prophet-LGBM algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Yangyang
  • Mao, Meiqin
  • Chang, Liuchen

Abstract

The fast-increasing applications of renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs) pose significant challenges to the safe and economic operation of the power grid. However, through Virtual Power Plant (VPP) technology, EV fleets can be aggregated into large-scale EV generalized energy storage systems, providing scarce dispatchable flexible resources for the future power system. Rapid and accurate prediction of the Aggregated Schedulable Capacity of EV (EVASC) fleets is a crucial technology for VPP with Electric Vehicles (EV-VPP) to participate in various ancillary services of the power system. In this paper, orienting for various dispatch scenarios in the power system, a multi-time scale prediction model of the EVASC for EV-VPPs is presented based on the enhanced Prophet algorithm combining a light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) algorithm. The enhanced Prophet-LGBM algorithm is initially proposed here by incorporating the LGBM algorithm into the traditional Prophet algorithm in series and adding extra sequential features in its input, such as temperature, weather, and alike. In this way, the problem of overfitting and low capability in addressing additional input features in the traditional Prophet is overcome. The proposed enhanced Prophet-LGBM-based prediction method of the EVASC for EV-VPPs is validated using 1.8 million actual charging records of over 4000 charging piles for half a year at the provincial level. The 30-day simulation results of the day ahead and intraday predictions of the EVASC for EV-VPPs show that much higher performances in the prediction accuracy can be achieved, specifically in holidays.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yangyang & Mao, Meiqin & Chang, Liuchen, 2024. "Multi-time scales prediction of aggregated schedulable capacity of electric vehicle fleets based on enhanced Prophet-LGBM algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 374(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:374:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924014016
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924014016
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guille, Christophe & Gross, George, 2009. "A conceptual framework for the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4379-4390, November.
    2. Shareef, Hussain & Islam, Md. Mainul & Mohamed, Azah, 2016. "A review of the stage-of-the-art charging technologies, placement methodologies, and impacts of electric vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 403-420.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mubbashir Ali & Jussi Ekström & Matti Lehtonen, 2018. "Sizing Hydrogen Energy Storage in Consideration of Demand Response in Highly Renewable Generation Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-11, May.
    2. Chaouachi, Aymen & Bompard, Ettore & Fulli, Gianluca & Masera, Marcelo & De Gennaro, Michele & Paffumi, Elena, 2016. "Assessment framework for EV and PV synergies in emerging distribution systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 719-728.
    3. Kley, Fabian & Lerch, Christian & Dallinger, David, 2011. "New business models for electric cars--A holistic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3392-3403, June.
    4. Guo, Shiliang & Li, Pengpeng & Ma, Kai & Yang, Bo & Yang, Jie, 2022. "Robust energy management for industrial microgrid considering charging and discharging pressure of electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    5. Alqahtani, Mohammed & Hu, Mengqi, 2022. "Dynamic energy scheduling and routing of multiple electric vehicles using deep reinforcement learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    6. Jayawardena, A.V. & Meegahapola, L.G. & Robinson, D.A. & Perera, S., 2015. "Microgrid capability diagram: A tool for optimal grid-tied operation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 497-504.
    7. Luo, Lizi & Wu, Zhi & Gu, Wei & Huang, He & Gao, Song & Han, Jun, 2020. "Coordinated allocation of distributed generation resources and electric vehicle charging stations in distribution systems with vehicle-to-grid interaction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    8. Galus, Matthias D. & Zima, Marek & Andersson, Göran, 2010. "On integration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles into existing power system structures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6736-6745, November.
    9. Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2011. "Electric Vehicles in Imperfect Electricity Markets: The case of Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 39(10), pages 6178-6189.
    10. Sultana, U. & Khairuddin, Azhar B. & Sultana, Beenish & Rasheed, Nadia & Qazi, Sajid Hussain & Malik, Nimra Riaz, 2018. "Placement and sizing of multiple distributed generation and battery swapping stations using grasshopper optimizer algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 408-421.
    11. Rahman, Syed & Khan, Irfan Ahmed & Khan, Ashraf Ali & Mallik, Ayan & Nadeem, Muhammad Faisal, 2022. "Comprehensive review & impact analysis of integrating projected electric vehicle charging load to the existing low voltage distribution system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Nimalsiri, Nanduni I. & Ratnam, Elizabeth L. & Mediwaththe, Chathurika P. & Smith, David B. & Halgamuge, Saman K., 2021. "Coordinated charging and discharging control of electric vehicles to manage supply voltages in distribution networks: Assessing the customer benefit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    13. Kaleem Ullah & Abdul Basit & Zahid Ullah & Fahad R. Albogamy & Ghulam Hafeez, 2022. "Automatic Generation Control in Modern Power Systems with Wind Power and Electric Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-24, February.
    14. Luo, Qingsong & Zhou, Yimin & Hou, Weicheng & Peng, Lei, 2022. "A hierarchical blockchain architecture based V2G market trading system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    15. Das, H.S. & Rahman, M.M. & Li, S. & Tan, C.W., 2020. "Electric vehicles standards, charging infrastructure, and impact on grid integration: A technological review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    16. Arshdeep Singh & Shimi Sudha Letha, 2019. "Emerging energy sources for electric vehicle charging station," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 2043-2082, October.
    17. van der Kam, Mart & van Sark, Wilfried, 2015. "Smart charging of electric vehicles with photovoltaic power and vehicle-to-grid technology in a microgrid; a case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 20-30.
    18. Carreiro, Andreia M. & Jorge, Humberto M. & Antunes, Carlos Henggeler, 2017. "Energy management systems aggregators: A literature survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1160-1172.
    19. Schücking, Maximilian & Jochem, Patrick & Fichtner, Wolf & Wollersheim, Olaf & Stella, Kevin, 2017. "Charging strategies for economic operations of electric vehicles in commercial applications," MPRA Paper 91599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Hannan, M.A. & Lipu, M.S.H. & Hussain, A. & Mohamed, A., 2017. "A review of lithium-ion battery state of charge estimation and management system in electric vehicle applications: Challenges and recommendations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 834-854.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:374:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924014016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.