Ray-Tracing modeling for urban photovoltaic energy planning and management

The traditional Radiative Transfer Modelling solutions for Solar Energy monitoring and forecasting often provide outputs for a single point location or an area location. However, for high resolution representation of areas these solutions suffer due to low simulation speeds. This approach makes it difficult for decision-makers to accurately estimate the solar potential of the administrative area and plan installations accordingly. In this direction, the study introduces three-dimensional Ray-Tracing based radiative modeling which is a high-speed area-based solution for solar energy monitoring. The three-dimensional ray-tracing was simulated by using advanced graphic creation platforms and cloud computing in conjunction with satellite data of the clouds, aerosols, building shadows effects and three-dimensional representations of the city using Cesium 3D tiles and Unreal Engine ®. The entire system was developed in a hybrid model to be exploited by urban planners for solar PV installations and by electricity distribution system operators for energy management and efficient incorporation of the produced energy into the regular and smart grids. This study implements and analyses this Ray-Tracing model for solar photovoltaic energy potential estimation at a rooftop level for the city of Athens, Greece. The total rooftop exploitable area in Athens was found to be close to 34 km2, which is able to massively host distributed PVs followed by almost 4.3 TWh of annually produced energy, whilst Penteli (a Municipality in Athens) possessed a potential of 96.8 GWh with an exploitable area of just 0.8 km2. This amount of energy, in a hypothetical full coverage scenario, is able to provide for 48.7% of Athens’s total energy requirement. Similar year-long simulations were conducted using the EU’s largest rooftop solar installation at Stavros Niarchos Foundation Cultural Center and randomly selected rooftops having solar installations in different municipalities in Athens. With these estimated solar potential values, the gross savings in natural gas consumption and hence the CO2 equivalent emissions can be computed. With the current estimated solar potential of Athens, the analyzed savings accounted of nearly 2.43 billion euros and 18 MT CO2 equivalent emissions. These computed annual savings are capable of covering installation costs for nearly 100,000 new solar installations. The end-product of this study is the development of a solar cadastre web tool which will support the decision-makers in the energy transition policies and the solar PV penetration into the urban environment and eventually drive the effort into renewable energy transition across the globe.