Assessing green methanol vehicles' deployment with life cycle assessment-system dynamics model

Due to the high CO2 emissions during the coal-to-methanol process, conventional coal-to-methanol vehicles' life cycle environmental impact is significant. As the world's largest market for methanol vehicle applications, China is exploring a ‘green methanol vehicles’ route: using CO2-to-methanol or biomass-to-methanol in internal combustion engine vehicles. However, the economy, effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions, and changes in resource consumption of green methanol vehicles have yet to be investigated. This study first conducts a ‘Resource-Environment-Economy’ life cycle assessment on vehicles from different routes, including green methanol vehicles. Next, this study builds a system dynamics model based on the Resource-Environment-Economy assessment boundaries to predict the development trend of green methanol vehicles in the designed scenarios. CO2-to-methanol vehicle emits 24% less CO2 over their life cycle than gasoline vehicle, which can be a reasonable alternative from 2028. By 2030, biomass-to-methanol vehicle has a high development potential with minimal energy and less water consumption. It suggests that green methanol vehicles be incorporated into new energy vehicles and enjoy preferential policies.