Paths to market for stationary solid oxide fuel cells: Expert elicitation and a cost of electricity model

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) can efficiently generate continuous electricity for buildings but face technical and economic challenges to achieving mass market acceptance. We conducted a workshop comprising 23 experts to assess near-term markets, system cost and production scale, and system and stack degradation rates. Experts identified commercial- and residential-scale systems as the most favorable entry-level markets in the U.S. and world, respectively. The 2020, 2035, and 2050 median 250 kW electric-only system costs assessed by experts were $2,400/kW, $1,909/kW, and $841/kW (2018 USD) at production volumes of 210, 4000, and 10,000 systems per year, respectively. For small-scale combined heat and power applications, median 1 kW system cost assessments were $11,000/kW, $7,750/kW, and $5,750/kW at 50,000, 80,000 and 175,000 systems per year, respectively. Experts suggested voltage degradation could achieve 0.2%/1000 hrs in 2035–2050 and identified chromium poisoning, microstructural cathode degradation, and Ni agglomeration and coarsening as the most substantial barriers to mitigating degradation. To assess lifecycle performance, we incorporated experts' assessments into a cost of electricity (COE) model. The 250 kW system COE competed with anticipated internal combustion engine, microturbine, and U.S. grid COEs in 2035–2050. The 1 kW system COEs were three times anticipated grid prices in 2035–2050; however, 1 kW systems may be better suited to countries with higher spark spreads. Our results could inform business decisions, funding prioritizations, and technology roadmap development.