IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v303y2021ics0306261921009685.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic load forecasting considering temporal correlation: Online models for the prediction of households’ electrical load

Author

Listed:
  • Lemos-Vinasco, Julian
  • Bacher, Peder
  • Møller, Jan Kloppenborg

Abstract

Home Energy Management Systems (HEMSs) are expected to become an inevitable part of the future smart grid technologies. To work effectively, HEMSs require reliable and accurate load forecasts. In this paper, two new modelling methods are presented. They are both suited for producing multivariate probabilistic forecasts, which consider the temporal correlation between forecast horizons. The first method employs point forecasts generated with Recursive Least Squares (RLS) models and subsequently analyses the forecasts’ residuals to estimate the marginal distributions and temporal correlation. The second method is based on quantile regression to estimate marginal distributions, and a Gaussian copula for linking them together. Furthermore, the application of two modelling approaches for the temporal correlation estimation are investigated for each of the two modelling methods. As a case study, a numerical experiment is designed to emulate an online HEMS operation using data from an inhabited home located in Denmark. Simulation results show a robust performance for the proposed models, with the quantile–copula ensemble outperforming the RLS-based models in predicting the marginal distributions and capturing the temporal correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lemos-Vinasco, Julian & Bacher, Peder & Møller, Jan Kloppenborg, 2021. "Probabilistic load forecasting considering temporal correlation: Online models for the prediction of households’ electrical load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:303:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921009685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921009685
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117594?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elamin, Niematallah & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2018. "Modeling and forecasting hourly electricity demand by SARIMAX with interactions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 257-268.
    2. James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
    3. Wang, Yi & Gan, Dahua & Sun, Mingyang & Zhang, Ning & Lu, Zongxiang & Kang, Chongqing, 2019. "Probabilistic individual load forecasting using pinball loss guided LSTM," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 10-20.
    4. Kanda, Isao & Veguillas, J.M. Quintana, 2019. "Data preprocessing and quantile regression for probabilistic load forecasting in the GEFCom2017 final match," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1460-1468.
    5. Rasmussen, Lisa Buth & Bacher, Peder & Madsen, Henrik & Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg & Heerup, Christian & Green, Torben, 2016. "Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 32-40.
    6. He, Yaoyao & Qin, Yang & Wang, Shuo & Wang, Xu & Wang, Chao, 2019. "Electricity consumption probability density forecasting method based on LASSO-Quantile Regression Neural Network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 565-575.
    7. Yang, Yandong & Li, Shufang & Li, Wenqi & Qu, Meijun, 2018. "Power load probability density forecasting using Gaussian process quantile regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 499-509.
    8. Fang, Tingting & Lahdelma, Risto, 2016. "Evaluation of a multiple linear regression model and SARIMA model in forecasting heat demand for district heating system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 544-552.
    9. Vogler–Finck, P.J.C. & Bacher, P. & Madsen, H., 2017. "Online short-term forecast of greenhouse heat load using a weather forecast service," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1298-1310.
    10. Zhang, Shu & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Yutian & Wang, Dan & Zhang, Ning, 2020. "Load probability density forecasting by transforming and combining quantile forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    11. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, September.
    12. Hosseini, Sayed Saeed & Agbossou, Kodjo & Kelouwani, Sousso & Cardenas, Alben, 2017. "Non-intrusive load monitoring through home energy management systems: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1266-1274.
    13. He, Yaoyao & Liu, Rui & Li, Haiyan & Wang, Shuo & Lu, Xiaofen, 2017. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting method using kernel-based support vector quantile regression and Copula theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 254-266.
    14. Cabral, Joilson de Assis & Legey, Luiz Fernando Loureiro & Freitas Cabral, Maria Viviana de, 2017. "Electricity consumption forecasting in Brazil: A spatial econometrics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 124-131.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Henni, Sarah & Becker, Jonas & Staudt, Philipp & vom Scheidt, Frederik & Weinhardt, Christof, 2022. "Industrial peak shaving with battery storage using a probabilistic forecasting approach: Economic evaluation of risk attitude," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Yaoyao & Cao, Chaojin & Wang, Shuo & Fu, Hong, 2022. "Nonparametric probabilistic load forecasting based on quantile combination in electrical power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    2. Zhang, Shu & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Yutian & Wang, Dan & Zhang, Ning, 2020. "Load probability density forecasting by transforming and combining quantile forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    3. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Spinelli, Stefano & Vitali, Andrea, 2022. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting through Bayesian Mixture Density Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    4. Ding, Lili & Zhao, Zhongchao & Han, Meng, 2021. "Probability density forecasts for steam coal prices in China: The role of high-frequency factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Xu, Xiuqin & Chen, Ying & Goude, Yannig & Yao, Qiwei, 2021. "Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting for French half-hourly electricity loads and quantiles for curve-to-curve regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    6. Li, Yiyan & Zhang, Si & Hu, Rongxing & Lu, Ning, 2021. "A meta-learning based distribution system load forecasting model selection framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    7. Lebotsa, Moshoko Emily & Sigauke, Caston & Bere, Alphonce & Fildes, Robert & Boylan, John E., 2018. "Short term electricity demand forecasting using partially linear additive quantile regression with an application to the unit commitment problem," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 104-118.
    8. Zheng, Zhuang & Sun, Zhankun & Pan, Jia & Luo, Xiaowei, 2021. "An integrated smart home energy management model based on a pyramid taxonomy for residential houses with photovoltaic-battery systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    9. Guo, Yabin & Wang, Jiangyu & Chen, Huanxin & Li, Guannan & Liu, Jiangyan & Xu, Chengliang & Huang, Ronggeng & Huang, Yao, 2018. "Machine learning-based thermal response time ahead energy demand prediction for building heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 16-27.
    10. Zhang, Meng & Guo, Huan & Sun, Ming & Liu, Sifeng & Forrest, Jeffrey, 2022. "A novel flexible grey multivariable model and its application in forecasting energy consumption in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    11. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    12. Jonathan Roth & Jayashree Chadalawada & Rishee K. Jain & Clayton Miller, 2021. "Uncertainty Matters: Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting for Residential Smart Meter Prediction, Segmentation, and Behavioral Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Wang, Xuewei & Wang, Jing & Wang, Lin & Yuan, Ruiming, 2019. "Non-overlapping moving compressive measurement algorithm for electrical energy estimation of distorted m-sequence dynamic test signal," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Lu, Shixiang & Xu, Qifa & Jiang, Cuixia & Liu, Yezheng & Kusiak, Andrew, 2022. "Probabilistic load forecasting with a non-crossing sparse-group Lasso-quantile regression deep neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    15. Teng, Sin Yong & Máša, Vítězslav & Touš, Michal & Vondra, Marek & Lam, Hon Loong & Stehlík, Petr, 2022. "Waste-to-energy forecasting and real-time optimization: An anomaly-aware approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 142-155.
    16. Xue, Guixiang & Qi, Chengying & Li, Han & Kong, Xiangfei & Song, Jiancai, 2020. "Heating load prediction based on attention long short term memory: A case study of Xingtai," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    17. Niemierko, Rochus & Töppel, Jannick & Tränkler, Timm, 2019. "A D-vine copula quantile regression approach for the prediction of residential heating energy consumption based on historical data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 691-708.
    18. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Quantiles as optimal point forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 197-207, April.
    19. Catania, Leopoldo & Luati, Alessandra, 2020. "Robust estimation of a location parameter with the integrated Hogg function," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    20. Chi, Lixun & Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Qadrdan, Meysam & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Li & Fan, Lin & Zhou, Jing & Yang, Zhaoming & Zhang, Jinjun, 2021. "Data-driven reliability assessment method of Integrated Energy Systems based on probabilistic deep learning and Gaussian mixture Model-Hidden Markov Model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 952-970.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:303:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921009685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.