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A new interval prediction methodology for short-term electric load forecasting based on pattern recognition

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  • Serrano-Guerrero, Xavier
  • Briceño-León, Marco
  • Clairand, Jean-Michel
  • Escrivá-Escrivá, Guillermo

Abstract

Demand prediction has been playing an increasingly important role for electricity management, and is fundamental to the corresponding decision-making. Due to the high variability of the increasing electrical load, and of the new renewable energy technologies, power systems are facing technical challenges. Thus, short-term forecasting has crucial utility for generating dispatching commands, managing the spot market, and detecting anomalies. The techniques associated with machine learning are those currently preferred by researchers for making predictions. However, there are concerns regarding limiting the uncertainty of the obtained results. In this work, a statistical methodology with a simple implementation is presented for obtaining a prediction interval with a time horizon of seven days (15-min time steps), thereby limiting the uncertainty. The methodology is based on pattern recognition and inferential statistics. The predictions made differ from those from a classical approach which predicts point values ​​by trying to minimize the error. In this study, 96 intervals of absorbed active power are predicted for each day, one for every 15 min, along with a previously defined probability associated with the real values ​​being within each obtained interval. To validate the effectiveness of the predictions, the results are compared with those from techniques with the best recent results, such as artificial neural network (ANN) long short-term memory (LSTM) models. A case study in Ecuador is analyzed, resulting in a prediction interval coverage probability (PICP) of 81.1% and prediction interval normalized average width (PINAW) of 10.13%, with a confidence interval of 80%.

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  • Serrano-Guerrero, Xavier & Briceño-León, Marco & Clairand, Jean-Michel & Escrivá-Escrivá, Guillermo, 2021. "A new interval prediction methodology for short-term electric load forecasting based on pattern recognition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:297:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921006048
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Liang, Xinbin & Liu, Zhuoxuan & Wang, Jie & Jin, Xinqiao & Du, Zhimin, 2023. "Uncertainty quantification-based robust deep learning for building energy systems considering distribution shift problem," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    3. Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Jialu & Wei, Danxiang, 2022. "Electric load prediction based on a novel combined interval forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    4. Zhu, Mengrui & Xu, Hua & Wang, Minggang & Tian, Lixin, 2024. "Carbon price interval prediction method based on probability density recurrence network and interval multi-layer perceptron," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 636(C).
    5. Ruixiang Zhang & Ziyu Zhu & Meng Yuan & Yihan Guo & Jie Song & Xuanxuan Shi & Yu Wang & Yaojie Sun, 2023. "Regional Residential Short-Term Load-Interval Forecasting Based on SSA-LSTM and Load Consumption Consistency Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Bilin Shao & Zixuan Yao & Yifan Qiang, 2023. "Point-Interval Forecasting for Electricity Load Based on Regular Fluctuation Component Extraction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Hany Habbak & Mohamed Mahmoud & Khaled Metwally & Mostafa M. Fouda & Mohamed I. Ibrahem, 2023. "Load Forecasting Techniques and Their Applications in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.
    8. Carneiro, Tatiane C. & Rocha, Paulo A.C. & Carvalho, Paulo C.M. & Fernández-Ramírez, Luis M., 2022. "Ridge regression ensemble of machine learning models applied to solar and wind forecasting in Brazil and Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).

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