IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v210y2018icp339-350.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A power-flow emulator approach for resilience assessment of repairable power grids subject to weather-induced failures and data deficiency

Author

Listed:
  • Rocchetta, Roberto
  • Zio, Enrico
  • Patelli, Edoardo

Abstract

A generalised uncertainty quantification framework for resilience assessment of weather-coupled, repairable power grids is presented. The framework can be used to efficiently quantify both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty affecting grid-related and weather-related factors. The power grid simulator has been specifically designed to model interactions between severe weather conditions and grid dynamic states and behaviours, such as weather-induced failures or delays in components replacements. A resilience index is computed by adopting a novel algorithm which exploits a vectorised emulator of the power-flow solver to reduce the computational efforts. The resilience stochastic modelling framework is embedded into a non-intrusive generalised stochastic framework, which enables the analyst to quantify the effect of parameters imprecision. A modified version of the IEEE 24 nodes reliability test system has been used as representative case study. The surrogate-based model and the Power-Flow-based model are compared, and the results show similar accuracy but enhanced efficiency of the former. Global sensitivity of the resilience index to increasing imprecision in parameters of the probabilistic model has been analysed. The relevance of specific weather/grid uncertain factors is highlighted by global sensitivity analysis and the importance of dealing with imprecision in the information clearly emerges.

Suggested Citation

  • Rocchetta, Roberto & Zio, Enrico & Patelli, Edoardo, 2018. "A power-flow emulator approach for resilience assessment of repairable power grids subject to weather-induced failures and data deficiency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 339-350.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:210:y:2018:i:c:p:339-350
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.10.126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917315738
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.10.126?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Haibin & Davidson, Rachel A. & Apanasovich, Tatiyana V., 2008. "Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 897-912.
    2. Li, Guoqing & Zhang, Rufeng & Jiang, Tao & Chen, Houhe & Bai, Linquan & Cui, Hantao & Li, Xiaojing, 2017. "Optimal dispatch strategy for integrated energy systems with CCHP and wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 408-419.
    3. Li, Y.F. & Sansavini, G. & Zio, E., 2013. "Non-dominated sorting binary differential evolution for the multi-objective optimization of cascading failures protection in complex networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 195-205.
    4. Chen, J.J. & Zhuang, Y.B. & Li, Y.Z. & Wang, P. & Zhao, Y.L. & Zhang, C.S., 2017. "Risk-aware short term hydro-wind-thermal scheduling using a probability interval optimization model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 534-554.
    5. Cadini, Francesco & Agliardi, Gian Luca & Zio, Enrico, 2017. "A modeling and simulation framework for the reliability/availability assessment of a power transmission grid subject to cascading failures under extreme weather conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 267-279.
    6. Liao, Chung-Shou & Hsieh, Tsung-Jung & Guo, Xian-Chang & Liu, Jian-Hong & Chu, Chia-Chi, 2015. "Hybrid search for the optimal PMU placement problem on a power grid," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 985-994.
    7. Wang, Fei & Xu, Hanchen & Xu, Ti & Li, Kangping & Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Catalão, João. P.S., 2017. "The values of market-based demand response on improving power system reliability under extreme circumstances," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 220-231.
    8. Wang, Huai-zhi & Li, Gang-qiang & Wang, Gui-bin & Peng, Jian-chun & Jiang, Hui & Liu, Yi-tao, 2017. "Deep learning based ensemble approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 56-70.
    9. Matko, Maruša & Golobič, Mojca & Kontić, Branko, 2017. "Reducing risks to electric power infrastructure due to extreme weather events by means of spatial planning: Case studies from Slovenia," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 12-24.
    10. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Plischke, Elmar, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 869-887.
    11. Amrouche, Badia & Le Pivert, Xavier, 2014. "Artificial neural network based daily local forecasting for global solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 333-341.
    12. Mena, Rodrigo & Hennebel, Martin & Li, Yan-Fu & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "A multi-objective optimization framework for risk-controlled integration of renewable generation into electric power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 712-727.
    13. Rocchetta, R. & Li, Y.F. & Zio, E., 2015. "Risk assessment and risk-cost optimization of distributed power generation systems considering extreme weather conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 47-61.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valcamonico, Dario & Sansavini, Giovanni & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Cooperative co-evolutionary approach to optimize recovery for improving resilience in multi-communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    2. Mishra, Dillip Kumar & Ghadi, Mojtaba Jabbari & Azizivahed, Ali & Li, Li & Zhang, Jiangfeng, 2021. "A review on resilience studies in active distribution systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Hussain, Akhtar & Bui, Van-Hai & Kim, Hak-Man, 2019. "Microgrids as a resilience resource and strategies used by microgrids for enhancing resilience," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 56-72.
    4. Hao, Yucheng & Jia, Limin & Zio, Enrico & Wang, Yanhui & Small, Michael & Li, Man, 2023. "Improving resilience of high-speed train by optimizing repair strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    5. Shang, Ce & Lin, Teng & Li, Canbing & Wang, Keyou & Ai, Qian, 2021. "Joining resilience and reliability evaluation against both weather and ageing causes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Zeng, Zhiguo & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zhai, Qingqing & Du, Shijia, 2021. "A Markov reward process-based framework for resilience analysis of multistate energy systems under the threat of extreme events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    7. Rocchetta, Roberto & Crespo, Luis G., 2021. "A scenario optimization approach to reliability-based and risk-based design: Soft-constrained modulation of failure probability bounds," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Yuyama, Ayumi & Kajitani, Yoshio & Shoji, Gaku, 2018. "Simulation of operational reliability of thermal power plants during a power crisis: Are we underestimating power shortage risk?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 901-913.
    9. Hindolo George-Williams & Geng Feng & Frank PA Coolen & Michael Beer & Edoardo Patelli, 2019. "Extending the survival signature paradigm to complex systems with non-repairable dependent failures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(4), pages 505-519, August.
    10. Jufri, Fauzan Hanif & Widiputra, Victor & Jung, Jaesung, 2019. "State-of-the-art review on power grid resilience to extreme weather events: Definitions, frameworks, quantitative assessment methodologies, and enhancement strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1049-1065.
    11. Macmillan, Madeline & Murphy, Caitlin A. & Bazilian, Morgan D., 2022. "Exploring acute weather resilience: Meeting resilience and renewable goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Sun, Chenhao & Wang, Xin & Zheng, Yihui, 2020. "An ensemble system to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of energy security weaknesses in transmission networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    13. Kosai, Shoki & Unesaki, Hironobu, 2020. "Short-term vs long-term reliance: Development of a novel approach for diversity of fuels for electricity in energy security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    14. Matelli, José Alexandre & Goebel, Kai, 2018. "Conceptual design of cogeneration plants under a resilient design perspective: Resilience metrics and case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 736-750.
    15. Adel Mottahedi & Farhang Sereshki & Mohammad Ataei & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou & Abbas Barabadi, 2021. "The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, March.
    16. Rocchetta, Roberto & Patelli, Edoardo, 2020. "A post-contingency power flow emulator for generalized probabilistic risks assessment of power grids," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi‐Ping Fang & Giovanni Sansavini & Enrico Zio, 2019. "An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1949-1969, September.
    2. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    3. Rocchetta, Roberto, 2022. "Enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructures: Statistical analysis of power grid spectral clustering and post-contingency vulnerability metrics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Liu, Xing & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "A Hierarchical Resilience Enhancement Framework for Interdependent Critical Infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Mukherjee, Sayanti & Nateghi, Roshanak & Hastak, Makarand, 2018. "A multi-hazard approach to assess severe weather-induced major power outage risks in the U.S," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 283-305.
    6. Aslam, Sheraz & Herodotou, Herodotos & Mohsin, Syed Muhammad & Javaid, Nadeem & Ashraf, Nouman & Aslam, Shahzad, 2021. "A survey on deep learning methods for power load and renewable energy forecasting in smart microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Jose R. Vargas-Jaramillo & Jhon A. Montanez-Barrera & Michael R. von Spakovsky & Lamine Mili & Sergio Cano-Andrade, 2019. "Effects of Producer and Transmission Reliability on the Sustainability Assessment of Power System Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Munir Husein & Il-Yop Chung, 2019. "Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Microgrids Using a Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-21, May.
    9. Wang, Jian & Gao, Shibin & Yu, Long & Zhang, Dongkai & Ding, Chugang & Chen, Ke & Kou, Lei, 2022. "Predicting wind-caused floater intrusion risk for overhead contact lines based on Bayesian neural network with spatiotemporal correlation analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    10. Paweł Pijarski & Adrian Belowski, 2024. "Application of Methods Based on Artificial Intelligence and Optimisation in Power Engineering—Introduction to the Special Issue," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-42, January.
    11. Abdin, I.F. & Fang, Y.-P. & Zio, E., 2019. "A modeling and optimization framework for power systems design with operational flexibility and resilience against extreme heat waves and drought events," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 706-719.
    12. Vincenzo Varriale & Antonello Cammarano & Francesca Michelino & Mauro Caputo, 2021. "Sustainable Supply Chains with Blockchain, IoT and RFID: A Simulation on Order Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, June.
    13. Makam, Vaishno Devi & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis with χ2-divergences," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 372-383.
    14. Aunedi, Marko & Pantaleo, Antonio Marco & Kuriyan, Kamal & Strbac, Goran & Shah, Nilay, 2020. "Modelling of national and local interactions between heat and electricity networks in low-carbon energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    15. Plischke, Elmar & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2019. "Copula theory and probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Is there a connection?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 1046-1059.
    16. Zhu, Jianhua & Peng, Yan & Gong, Zhuping & Sun, Yanming & Lai, Chaoan & Wang, Qing & Zhu, Xiaojun & Gan, Zhongxue, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of SNG and PNG supply: The stability and robustness view #," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 717-729.
    17. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Do we really understand the development of China's new energy industry?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 733-745.
    18. Bin Luo & Shumin Miao & Chuntian Cheng & Yi Lei & Gang Chen & Lang Gao, 2019. "Long-Term Generation Scheduling for Cascade Hydropower Plants Considering Price Correlation between Multiple Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    19. Wen Shi & Xi Chen & Jennifer Shang, 2019. "An Efficient Morris Method-Based Framework for Simulation Factor Screening," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 745-770, October.
    20. Fauzan Hanif Jufri & Jun-Sung Kim & Jaesung Jung, 2017. "Analysis of Determinants of the Impact and the Grid Capability to Evaluate and Improve Grid Resilience from Extreme Weather Event," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:210:y:2018:i:c:p:339-350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.