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A power-flow emulator approach for resilience assessment of repairable power grids subject to weather-induced failures and data deficiency

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  • Rocchetta, Roberto
  • Zio, Enrico
  • Patelli, Edoardo

Abstract

A generalised uncertainty quantification framework for resilience assessment of weather-coupled, repairable power grids is presented. The framework can be used to efficiently quantify both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty affecting grid-related and weather-related factors. The power grid simulator has been specifically designed to model interactions between severe weather conditions and grid dynamic states and behaviours, such as weather-induced failures or delays in components replacements. A resilience index is computed by adopting a novel algorithm which exploits a vectorised emulator of the power-flow solver to reduce the computational efforts. The resilience stochastic modelling framework is embedded into a non-intrusive generalised stochastic framework, which enables the analyst to quantify the effect of parameters imprecision. A modified version of the IEEE 24 nodes reliability test system has been used as representative case study. The surrogate-based model and the Power-Flow-based model are compared, and the results show similar accuracy but enhanced efficiency of the former. Global sensitivity of the resilience index to increasing imprecision in parameters of the probabilistic model has been analysed. The relevance of specific weather/grid uncertain factors is highlighted by global sensitivity analysis and the importance of dealing with imprecision in the information clearly emerges.

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  • Rocchetta, Roberto & Zio, Enrico & Patelli, Edoardo, 2018. "A power-flow emulator approach for resilience assessment of repairable power grids subject to weather-induced failures and data deficiency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 339-350.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:210:y:2018:i:c:p:339-350
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.10.126
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    4. Hussain, Akhtar & Bui, Van-Hai & Kim, Hak-Man, 2019. "Microgrids as a resilience resource and strategies used by microgrids for enhancing resilience," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 56-72.
    5. Hao, Yucheng & Jia, Limin & Zio, Enrico & Wang, Yanhui & Small, Michael & Li, Man, 2023. "Improving resilience of high-speed train by optimizing repair strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    6. Shang, Ce & Lin, Teng & Li, Canbing & Wang, Keyou & Ai, Qian, 2021. "Joining resilience and reliability evaluation against both weather and ageing causes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Sun, Chenhao & Wang, Xin & Zheng, Yihui, 2020. "An ensemble system to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of energy security weaknesses in transmission networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    8. Kosai, Shoki & Unesaki, Hironobu, 2020. "Short-term vs long-term reliance: Development of a novel approach for diversity of fuels for electricity in energy security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    9. Matelli, José Alexandre & Goebel, Kai, 2018. "Conceptual design of cogeneration plants under a resilient design perspective: Resilience metrics and case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 736-750.
    10. Zeng, Zhiguo & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zhai, Qingqing & Du, Shijia, 2021. "A Markov reward process-based framework for resilience analysis of multistate energy systems under the threat of extreme events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    11. Adel Mottahedi & Farhang Sereshki & Mohammad Ataei & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou & Abbas Barabadi, 2021. "The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, March.
    12. Rocchetta, Roberto & Patelli, Edoardo, 2020. "A post-contingency power flow emulator for generalized probabilistic risks assessment of power grids," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    13. Rocchetta, Roberto & Crespo, Luis G., 2021. "A scenario optimization approach to reliability-based and risk-based design: Soft-constrained modulation of failure probability bounds," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    14. Yuyama, Ayumi & Kajitani, Yoshio & Shoji, Gaku, 2018. "Simulation of operational reliability of thermal power plants during a power crisis: Are we underestimating power shortage risk?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 901-913.
    15. Hindolo George-Williams & Geng Feng & Frank PA Coolen & Michael Beer & Edoardo Patelli, 2019. "Extending the survival signature paradigm to complex systems with non-repairable dependent failures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(4), pages 505-519, August.
    16. Jufri, Fauzan Hanif & Widiputra, Victor & Jung, Jaesung, 2019. "State-of-the-art review on power grid resilience to extreme weather events: Definitions, frameworks, quantitative assessment methodologies, and enhancement strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1049-1065.

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