IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v78y2015icp203-218.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the role of lagged exogenous variables and spatio–temporal correlations in improving the accuracy of solar forecasting methods

Author

Listed:
  • Zagouras, Athanassios
  • Pedro, Hugo T.C.
  • Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

Abstract

We propose and analyze a spatio–temporal correlation method to improve forecast performance of solar irradiance using gridded satellite-derived global horizontal irradiance (GHI) data. Forecast models are developed for seven locations in California to predict 1-h averaged GHI 1, 2 and 3 h ahead of time. The seven locations were chosen to represent a diverse set of maritime, mediterranean, arid and semi-arid micro-climates. Ground stations from the California Irrigation Management Information System were used to obtain solar irradiance time-series from the points of interest. In this method, firstly, we define areas with the highest correlated time-series between the satellite-derived data and the ground data. Secondly, we select satellite-derived data from these regions as exogenous variables to several forecast models (linear models, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression) to predict GHI at the seven locations. The results show that using linear forecasting models and a genetic algorithm to optimize the selection of multiple time-lagged exogenous variables results in significant forecasting improvements over other benchmark models.

Suggested Citation

  • Zagouras, Athanassios & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "On the role of lagged exogenous variables and spatio–temporal correlations in improving the accuracy of solar forecasting methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 203-218.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:78:y:2015:i:c:p:203-218
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.12.071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148115000051
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2014.12.071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Badescu, Viorel & Gueymard, Christian A. & Cheval, Sorin & Oprea, Cristian & Baciu, Madalina & Dumitrescu, Alexandru & Iacobescu, Flavius & Milos, Ioan & Rada, Costel, 2013. "Accuracy analysis for fifty-four clear-sky solar radiation models using routine hourly global irradiance measurements in Romania," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 85-103.
    2. Al-Alawi, S.M. & Al-Hinai, H.A., 1998. "An ANN-based approach for predicting global radiation in locations with no direct measurement instrumentation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 199-204.
    3. Yang, Dazhi & Gu, Chaojun & Dong, Zibo & Jirutitijaroen, Panida & Chen, Nan & Walsh, Wilfred M., 2013. "Solar irradiance forecasting using spatial-temporal covariance structures and time-forward kriging," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 235-245.
    4. Mellit, A. & Benghanem, M. & Kalogirou, S.A., 2007. "Modeling and simulation of a stand-alone photovoltaic system using an adaptive artificial neural network: Proposition for a new sizing procedure," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 285-313.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "Real-time prediction intervals for intra-hour DNI forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 234-244.
    2. Aguiar, L. Mazorra & Pereira, B. & Lauret, P. & Díaz, F. & David, M., 2016. "Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 599-610.
    3. Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Kaur, Amanpreet & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Day-ahead resource forecasting for concentrated solar power integration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 866-876.
    4. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    5. Kaur, Amanpreet & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Benefits of solar forecasting for energy imbalance markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 819-830.
    6. Shargh, S. & Khorshid ghazani, B. & Mohammadi-ivatloo, B. & Seyedi, H. & Abapour, M., 2016. "Probabilistic multi-objective optimal power flow considering correlated wind power and load uncertainties," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 10-21.
    7. Lan, Hai & Yin, He & Hong, Ying-Yi & Wen, Shuli & Yu, David C. & Cheng, Peng, 2018. "Day-ahead spatio-temporal forecasting of solar irradiation along a navigation route," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 15-27.
    8. Liu, Yongqi & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Zhendong & Pei, Shaoqian & Wang, Chao & Yu, Xiang & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2019. "Ensemble spatiotemporal forecasting of solar irradiation using variational Bayesian convolutional gate recurrent unit network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sharma, Vishal & Yang, Dazhi & Walsh, Wilfred & Reindl, Thomas, 2016. "Short term solar irradiance forecasting using a mixed wavelet neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 481-492.
    2. Pasta, Edoardo & Faedo, Nicolás & Mattiazzo, Giuliana & Ringwood, John V., 2023. "Towards data-driven and data-based control of wave energy systems: Classification, overview, and critical assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    3. Zarzo, Manuel & Martí, Pau, 2011. "Modeling the variability of solar radiation data among weather stations by means of principal components analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(8), pages 2775-2784, August.
    4. Rawat, Rahul & Kaushik, S.C. & Lamba, Ravita, 2016. "A review on modeling, design methodology and size optimization of photovoltaic based water pumping, standalone and grid connected system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1506-1519.
    5. Benkaciali, Saïd & Haddadi, Mourad & Khellaf, Abdellah, 2018. "Evaluation of direct solar irradiance from 18 broadband parametric models: Case of Algeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 694-711.
    6. Sun, Xixi & Bright, Jamie M. & Gueymard, Christian A. & Bai, Xinyu & Acord, Brendan & Wang, Peng, 2021. "Worldwide performance assessment of 95 direct and diffuse clear-sky irradiance models using principal component analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Kaldellis, J.K. & Zafirakis, D. & Kondili, E., 2010. "Energy pay-back period analysis of stand-alone photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1444-1454.
    8. Cervone, Guido & Clemente-Harding, Laura & Alessandrini, Stefano & Delle Monache, Luca, 2017. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks and an Analog Ensemble," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 274-286.
    9. Moldovan, Camelia Liliana & Păltănea, Radu & Visa, Ion, 2020. "Improvement of clear sky models for direct solar irradiance considering turbidity factor variable during the day," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 559-569.
    10. Zhengping Liu & Wang Zhang & Hongxian Liu & Guohe Huang & Jiliang Zhen & Xin Qi, 2019. "Characterization of Renewable Energy Utilization Mode for Air-Environmental Quality Improvement through an Inexact Factorial Optimization Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, April.
    11. Mellit, A. & Benghanem, M. & Kalogirou, S.A., 2006. "An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar-radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(7), pages 705-722, July.
    12. Sichilalu, Sam & Mathaba, Tebello & Xia, Xiaohua, 2017. "Optimal control of a wind–PV-hybrid powered heat pump water heater," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1173-1184.
    13. Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoglu, Fatih Onur & Edizkan, Rifat, 2018. "Novel short term solar irradiance forecasting models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 58-66.
    14. Shepero, Mahmoud & Munkhammar, Joakim & Widén, Joakim & Bishop, Justin D.K. & Boström, Tobias, 2018. "Modeling of photovoltaic power generation and electric vehicles charging on city-scale: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 61-71.
    15. Matos, Fernando B. & Camacho, José R. & Rodrigues, Pollyanna & Guimarães Jr., Sebastião C., 2011. "A research on the use of energy resources in the Amazon," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3196-3206, August.
    16. Hanany Tolba & Nouha Dkhili & Julien Nou & Julien Eynard & Stéphane Thil & Stéphane Grieu, 2020. "Multi-Horizon Forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance Using Online Gaussian Process Regression: A Kernel Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    17. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2022. "A network of sky imagers for spatial solar irradiance assessment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 1009-1019.
    18. Rodrigues, Eugénio & Gomes, Álvaro & Gaspar, Adélio Rodrigues & Henggeler Antunes, Carlos, 2018. "Estimation of renewable energy and built environment-related variables using neural networks – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 959-988.
    19. Patrick, Joshua D. & Harvill, Jane L. & Hansen, Clifford W., 2016. "A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 15-30.
    20. Salazar, Germán & Raichijk, Carlos, 2014. "Evaluation of clear-sky conditions in high altitude sites," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 197-202.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:78:y:2015:i:c:p:203-218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.