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Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

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  • Tesfay, Daniel
  • Wei, Pingyuan
  • Zheng, Yayun
  • Duan, Jinqiao
  • Kurths, Jürgen

Abstract

In this work we study the impact of non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-compartment model for the thermohaline circulation. By maximizing probability density of the solution process associated with a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and identify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical results indicate that random fluctuations with small intensity induces a weakened thermohaline circulation when the Lévy noise stability index is from 0.1 to 0.7.

Suggested Citation

  • Tesfay, Daniel & Wei, Pingyuan & Zheng, Yayun & Duan, Jinqiao & Kurths, Jürgen, 2020. "Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:369:y:2020:i:c:s0096300319308604
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Rahmstorf, 2003. "Thermohaline circulation: The current climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6924), pages 699-699, February.
    2. Gao, Ting & Duan, Jinqiao & Li, Xiaofan, 2016. "Fokker–Planck equations for stochastic dynamical systems with symmetric Lévy motions," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 278(C), pages 1-20.
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    Cited by:

    1. Song, Yi & Xu, Wei & Wei, Wei & Niu, Lizhi, 2023. "Dynamical transition of phenotypic states in breast cancer system with Lévy noise," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 627(C).
    2. Neitzel, Leonie & Gehrig, Edeltraud, 2022. "Influence of advection in box models describing thermohaline circulation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 101-112.
    3. Han, Ping & Xu, Wei & Zhang, Hongxia & Wang, Liang, 2022. "Most probable trajectories in the delayed tumor growth model excited by a multiplicative non-Gaussian noise," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

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