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Discussion of “The effects of forecast type and performance-based incentives on the quality of management forecasts”

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  • Hales, Jeffrey

Abstract

In this paper, I provide a summary and discussion of Chen, Rennekamp, and Zhou (2015). Doing so allows me the opportunity to discuss three interrelated themes – forecasting, motivated reasoning, and disaggregation. Following my summary, I discuss specific opportunities to extend this line of research. I also offer examples of more general extensions related to the psychology and economics of disaggregation.

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  • Hales, Jeffrey, 2015. "Discussion of “The effects of forecast type and performance-based incentives on the quality of management forecasts”," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 19-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:aosoci:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:19-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.aos.2015.04.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feltham, Ga, 1977. "Cost Aggregation - Information Economic-Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 42-70.
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    3. Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 15-25, 01-02.
    4. Chen, Clara Xiaoling & Rennekamp, Kristina M. & Zhou, Flora H., 2015. "The effects of forecast type and performance-based incentives on the quality of management forecasts," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 8-18.
    5. Lev, B, 1968. "Aggregation Problem In Financial Statements - Informational Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 247-261.
    6. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Jeffrey Hales, 2007. "Directional Preferences, Information Processing, and Investors' Forecasts of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 607-628, June.
    8. Jun Han & Hun‐Tong Tan, 2010. "Investors' Reactions to Management Earnings Guidance: The Joint Effect of Investment Position, News Valence, and Guidance Form," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 123-146, March.
    9. Butterwo.Je, 1972. "Accounting System As An Information Function," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27.
    10. Puri, Manju & Robinson, David T., 2007. "Optimism and economic choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 71-99, October.
    11. Jeffrey Hales & Xi (Jason) Kuang & Shankar Venkataraman, 2011. "Who Believes the Hype? An Experimental Examination of How Language Affects Investor Judgments," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 223-255, March.
    12. Jun Han & Hun‐Tong Tan, 2010. "Investors' Reactions to Management Earnings Guidance: The Joint Effect of Investment Position, News Valence, and Guidance Form," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 81-104, March.
    13. Ronald A. Dye & Sri S. Sridhar, 2004. "Reliability‐Relevance Trade‐Offs and the Efficiency of Aggregation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 51-88, March.
    14. D. Eric Hirst & Lisa Koonce & Shankar Venkataraman, 2007. "How Disaggregation Enhances the Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 811-837, September.
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