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Assessment of irrigated maize yield response to climate change scenarios in Portugal

Author

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  • Yang, Chenyao
  • Fraga, Helder
  • Ieperen, Wim Van
  • Santos, João Andrade

Abstract

Maize is an important crop for the Portuguese agricultural sector. Future climate change, with warmer and dryer conditions in this Mediterranean environment, will challenge this high-water demanding crop. The present study aims at assessing the response of maize yield, growth cycle, seasonal water input and daily water productivity (DWP) to climate change, and analyse water-yield relations. For this purpose, two process-based crop models are used (STICS and AquaCrop) and were validated in simulating irrigated maize yields in Central Portugal (Ribatejo) by using regional statistics (1986–2005). Both models show an overall agreement in their outputs. The 2-model mean outputs are considered under future climate projections (2021–2080; RCP4.5 and 8.5), using the global/regional climate model chain M-MPI-ESM-LR/SMHI-RCA4. The most significant reductions on maize yield (−17%), growth cycle (−12%) and DWP (−19%) are observed for 2061–2080 under RCP8.5, with a noticeable decrease of seasonal water input (−9%) during 2041–2060. Decreased DWP is largely due to significant yield reduction, with limited benefit of atmospheric CO2 enrichment. A water-yield relation analysis highlights that an increase of 2–14% in irrigation for future scenarios (compared to 1986–2005) might be a suitable strategy to mitigate yield reduction, despite substantially lower DWP (down to −23%). These findings demonstrate that our model approach can be used as a decision support tool by Portuguese farmers, particularly in optimizing maize production under changing climates.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Chenyao & Fraga, Helder & Ieperen, Wim Van & Santos, João Andrade, 2017. "Assessment of irrigated maize yield response to climate change scenarios in Portugal," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 178-190.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:184:y:2017:i:c:p:178-190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2017.02.004
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    2. Qaisar Saddique & Huanjie Cai & Jiatun Xu & Ali Ajaz & Jianqiang He & Qiang Yu & Yunfei Wang & Hui Chen & Muhammad Imran Khan & De Li Liu & Liang He, 2020. "Analyzing adaptation strategies for maize production under future climate change in Guanzhong Plain, China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1523-1543, December.
    3. Reza Zamani & Ali Mohammad Akhond Ali & Abbas Roozbahani, 2020. "Evaluation of Adaptation Scenarios for Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Allocation Using Fuzzy MCDM Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1093-1110, February.
    4. Ahmadzadeh Araji, Hamidreza & Wayayok, Aimrun & Massah Bavani, Alireza & Amiri, Ebrahim & Abdullah, Ahmad Fikri & Daneshian, Jahanfar & Teh, C.B.S., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on soybean production under different treatments of field experiments considering the uncertainty of general circulation models," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 63-71.
    5. Ahmad, Mirza Junaid & Iqbal, Muhammad Anjum & Choi, Kyung Sook, 2020. "Climate-driven constraints in sustaining future wheat yield and water productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Serra, J. & Paredes, P. & Cordovil, CMdS & Cruz, S. & Hutchings, NJ & Cameira, MR, 2023. "Is irrigation water an overlooked source of nitrogen in agriculture?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    7. Xiang, Keyu & Li, Yi & Horton, Robert & Feng, Hao, 2020. "Similarity and difference of potential evapotranspiration and reference crop evapotranspiration – a review," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

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