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An Agent‐Based Simulation Model of Structural Change in Canadian Prairie Agriculture, 1960–2000

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  • Tyler Freeman
  • James Nolan
  • Richard Schoney

Abstract

Agent‐based simulation modeling (or ABM) is used to examine the evolution of farm size and financial structure in Canadian prairie agriculture over the period 1960–2000. Individual farm agent interaction and dynamics in this model occur through land ownership and leasing markets. A base scenario is developed and the model is validated against actual data from a typical Saskatchewan farm region. Subsequently, we simulate counterfactual policy scenarios applicable to farms in this region. Overall, we view the contribution of this paper as twofold—first, it represents a “proof of concept” of ABM's ability to simulate farming on a medium to large scale. Second, the model allows us to examine the contributions of entrepreneurship, factor endowment, and historical government agricultural support payments on the evolution of Canadian prairie farm structure. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle multi‐agent pour analyser l'évolution de la taille et de la structure financière de fermes dans les Prairies canadiennes, de 1960 à 2000. Dans ce modèle, les agents interagissent dans le temps par le biais des marchés de la propriété foncière et du bail foncier. Nous avons élaboré un scénario de référence et nous avons validé le modèle à partir de données réelles tirées d'une région agricole typique de la Saskatchewan. Ensuite, nous avons simulé des scénarios contrefactuels de politiques applicables à des fermes de cette région. Le présent article poursuivait un double objectif. Le présent article est à double volet. Premièrement, il comprend une démonstration de faisabilité de la capacité du modèle multiagent à simuler l'agriculture de moyenne à grande échelle. Deuxièmement, le modèle a permis d'examiner l'apport de l'entrepreneuriat, de la dotation en facteurs de production et des paiements de soutien agricole sur l'évolution de la structure des fermes dans les Prairies canadiennes.

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  • Tyler Freeman & James Nolan & Richard Schoney, 2009. "An Agent‐Based Simulation Model of Structural Change in Canadian Prairie Agriculture, 1960–2000," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 537-554, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:57:y:2009:i:4:p:537-554
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01169.x
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    1. Kremmydas, Dimitris & Athanasiadis, Ioannis N. & Rozakis, Stelios, 2018. "A review of Agent Based Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 95-106.
    2. Freeman, Tyler & Schoney, Richard & Nolan, James, 2013. "Man vs. manure: Examining the effects of residential demand on dairy farming in rural America," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 129-136.
    3. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2018. "Agricultural risks and farm land consolidation process in transition countries: The case of cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 223-235.
    4. Bert, Federico E. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Macal, Charles M. & North, Michael J. & Podestá, Guillermo P., 2014. "Lessons from a comprehensive validation of an agent based-model: The experience of the Pampas Model of Argentinean agricultural systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 273(C), pages 284-298.
    5. Dieter Pennerstorfer, 2022. "Farm exits and competition on the land market: Evidence from spatially explicit data," Economics working papers 2022-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    6. Dimitris Kremmydas, 2012. "Agent based modeling for agricultural policy evaluation: A review," Working Papers 2012-3, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    7. Bert, Federico E. & Podestá, Guillermo P. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Menéndez, Ángel N. & North, Michael & Tatara, Eric & Laciana, Carlos E. & Weber, Elke & Toranzo, Fernando Ruiz, 2011. "An agent based model to simulate structural and land use changes in agricultural systems of the argentine pampas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(19), pages 3486-3499.
    8. Jason Wood & James Nolan, 2021. "Plant location decisions in the ethanol industry: a dynamic and spatial analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 103-132, June.
    9. James Nolan & Dawn Parker & G. Cornelis Van Kooten & Thomas Berger, 2009. "An Overview of Computational Modeling in Agricultural and Resource Economics," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 417-429, December.
    10. Chi Su & Richard A. Schoney & James F. Nolan, 2023. "Buy, sell or rent the farm: succession planning and the future of farming on the Great Plains," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 627-669, July.
    11. Holderieath, Jason, 2016. "Spatiotemporal management under heterogeneous damage and uncertain parameters. An agent-based approach," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235850, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Aaron De Laporte & Daniel Schuurman & Tristan Skolrud & Peter Slade & Alfons Weersink, 2024. "Business risk management programs and the adoption of beneficial management practices in Canadian crop agriculture," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 72(3), pages 309-324, September.

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