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Improving drought management in the Brazilian semiarid through crop forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Martins, Minella A.
  • Tomasella, Javier
  • Rodriguez, Daniel A.
  • Alvalá, Regina C.S.
  • Giarolla, Angélica
  • Garofolo, Lucas L.
  • Júnior, José Lázaro Siqueira
  • Paolicchi, Luis T.L.C.
  • Pinto, Gustavo L.N.

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluated the performance of the model AquaCrop for crop yield forecasting in the Brazilian semiarid (BSA) using meteorological observation and Eta model seasonal climate forecasts as input data. The study area is characterized by low rainfall that is poorly distributed throughout the rainy season; thus, the region's agricultural productivity is vulnerable to climate conditions. AquaCrop was first calibrated using field experiments and subsequently applied to simulate an operational crop yield forecast system for maize under rainfed conditions. Simulations were performed with daily data for 37 growing seasons for the period 2001–2010. The seasonal climate forecast was used in combination with observed meteorological data to anticipate the crop forecast. Soil characteristics were derived from pedotransfer functions (PTFs). We were able to demonstrate the ability of the seasonal crop yield forecast system to provide timely and accurate information about maize yield at least 30days in advance of the harvest. The development of improved crop yield forecasting system is crucial for implementing drought-preparedness measures in the BSA region.

Suggested Citation

  • Martins, Minella A. & Tomasella, Javier & Rodriguez, Daniel A. & Alvalá, Regina C.S. & Giarolla, Angélica & Garofolo, Lucas L. & Júnior, José Lázaro Siqueira & Paolicchi, Luis T.L.C. & Pinto, Gustavo , 2018. "Improving drought management in the Brazilian semiarid through crop forecasting," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 21-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:160:y:2018:i:c:p:21-30
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.11.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deepak K. Ray & James S. Gerber & Graham K. MacDonald & Paul C. West, 2015. "Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, May.
    2. Seyed Ahmadi & Elnaz Mosallaeepour & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Ali Sepaskhah, 2015. "Modeling Maize Yield and Soil Water Content with AquaCrop Under Full and Deficit Irrigation Managements," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2837-2853, June.
    3. Bussay, Attila & van der Velde, Marijn & Fumagalli, Davide & Seguini, Lorenzo, 2015. "Improving operational maize yield forecasting in Hungary," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 94-106.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pinheiro, Antonio Gebson & Alves, Cleber Pereira & Souza, Carlos André Alves de & Araújo Júnior, George do Nascimento & Jardim, Alexandre Maniçoba da Rosa Ferraz & Morais, José Edson Florentino de & S, 2024. "Calibration and validation of the AquaCrop model for production arrangements of forage cactus and grass in a semi-arid environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 488(C).
    2. Soyeon Lim & Seungyub Lee & Donghwi Jung, 2021. "Identifying the Drought Impact Factors and Developing Drought Scenarios Using the DSD Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4809-4823, November.
    3. Martins, Minella Alves & Tomasella, Javier & Dias, Cássia Gabriele, 2019. "Maize yield under a changing climate in the Brazilian Northeast: Impacts and adaptation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 339-350.
    4. Anna Florence & Andrew Revill & Stephen Hoad & Robert Rees & Mathew Williams, 2021. "The Effect of Antecedence on Empirical Model Forecasts of Crop Yield from Observations of Canopy Properties," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Battisti, Rafael & Ferreira, Marcelo Dias Paes & Tavares, Érica Basílio & Knapp, Fábio Miguel & Bender, Fabiani Denise & Casaroli, Derblai & Alves Júnior, José, 2020. "Rules for grown soybean-maize cropping system in Midwestern Brazil: Food production and economic profits," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    6. Richarde Marques Silva & Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos & Jorge Flávio Cazé Braga Costa Silva & Alexandro Medeiros Silva & Reginaldo Moura Brasil Neto, 2020. "Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 829-849, July.

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