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Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria

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  • Schönhart, Martin
  • Schauppenlehner, Thomas
  • Kuttner, Michael
  • Kirchner, Mathias
  • Schmid, Erwin

Abstract

Climate change is among the major drivers of agricultural land use change and demands autonomous farm adaptation as well as public mitigation and adaptation policies. In this article, we present an integrated land use model (ILM) mainly combining a bio-physical model and a bio-economic farm model at field, farm and landscape levels. The ILM is applied to a cropland dominated landscape in Austria to analyze impacts of climate change and mitigation and adaptation policy scenarios on farm production as well as on the abiotic environment and biotic environment. Changes in aggregated total farm gross margins from three climate change scenarios for 2040 range between +1% and +5% without policy intervention and compared to a reference situation under the current climate. Changes in aggregated gross margins are even higher if adaptation policies are in place. However, increasing productivity from climate change leads to deteriorating environmental conditions such as declining plant species richness and landscape appearance. It has to be balanced by mitigation and adaptation policies taking into account effects from the considerable spatial heterogeneity such as revealed by the ILM.

Suggested Citation

  • Schönhart, Martin & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Kuttner, Michael & Kirchner, Mathias & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 39-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:145:y:2016:i:c:p:39-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.008
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    3. Kucher, A., 2017. "Адаптація Аграрного Землекористування До Змін Клімату," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 3(1), March.
    4. Gabriel Bachner & Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Nina Knittel, 2019. "How does climate change adaptation affect public budgets? Development of an assessment framework and a demonstration for Austria," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(7), pages 1325-1341, October.
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    6. Purola, Tuomo & Lehtonen, Heikki & Liu, Xing & Tao, Fulu & Palosuo, Taru, 2018. "Production of cereals in northern marginal areas: An integrated assessment of climate change impacts at the farm level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 191-204.
    7. Luz Maria Castro & Fabian Härtl & Santiago Ochoa & Baltazar Calvas & Leonardo Izquierdo & Thomas Knoke, 2018. "Integrated bio-economic models as tools to support land-use decision making: a review of potential and limitations," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 183-211, July.

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