IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v142y2016icp9-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ex-ante analysis of opportunities for the sustainable intensification of maize production in Mozambique

Author

Listed:
  • Roxburgh, Caspar W.
  • Rodriguez, Daniel

Abstract

It has been suggested that during the first half of the 21st century food production will need to increase by 50–70% using nearly the same amount of land, and under increasing pressures of climate change, to meet the demand of an increasingly crowded world. The challenge is significant, though there are also opportunities, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where productivity gaps are largest. Here we report results from a participatory modeling exercise that aimed to identify feasible pathways for the sustainable intensification of agriculture in Manica Province, Mozambique. We used a combination of farmer questionnaires (n=52) and a cropping systems model (APSIM) to derive the likely causes and magnitude of existing gaps in maize yield, and agronomic nitrogen use efficiency. Results showed highly variable (i.e. season to season and site-to-site — 35% and 42% CV respectively) maize yields — regardless of nitrogen input use. Variability in soil fertility status and basic agronomic management (primarily sowing density) were the main drivers explaining site-to-site variability, while rainfall explained much of the season-to-season variability. Best-practice sowing densities (1 to 4.5pl./m2) were dependent on farmers' N inputs and agro-ecology. In most cases, the highest simulated yields were observed at sowing densities far below those recommended by the local extension services (4.4pl./m2). Estimates of returns on N inputs indicated that N fertilization was highly profitable for medium- and higher-performing farmers. Poor performing farmers could still make profits from investing in N fertilizers, but returns were lower than those of the better performers. We identified important knowledge gaps among the poorest performing smallholder. These gaps in knowledge related to simple principles of good agronomic practice — e.g. suitable plant populations, row spacing and sowing dates. We estimate that if these issues were addressed (i.e. with present levels of on farm investment) maize production could be increased by 120% from 309kg/ha to 682kg/ha, among 17% of the population of farmers. We also calculated that by re-investing a fraction (a third) of the proceeds from improving productivity, a further increase in productivity of 64% could be achieved, lifting yields from 682kg/ha to 1118kg/ha. We conclude that as a first stepping stone in lifting productivity, focus should aim to provide the poorer performing farmers simple recommendations for basic agronomic management that account for the specificities of local climate and soil conditions, before costly technological innovations (e.g. fertilizers, herbicides) are introduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Roxburgh, Caspar W. & Rodriguez, Daniel, 2016. "Ex-ante analysis of opportunities for the sustainable intensification of maize production in Mozambique," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 9-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:142:y:2016:i:c:p:9-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.10.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X1530041X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2015.10.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smale, Melinda & Byerlee, Derek & Jayne, Thom S., 2011. "Maize Revolutions in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 202592, Egerton University, Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development.
    2. Zingore, S. & González-Estrada, E. & Delve, R.J. & Herrero, M. & Dimes, J.P. & Giller, K.E., 2009. "An integrated evaluation of strategies for enhancing productivity and profitability of resource-constrained smallholder farms in Zimbabwe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 57-68, June.
    3. Zhiying Xu & Zhengfei Guan & T.S. Jayne & Roy Black, 2009. "Factors influencing the profitability of fertilizer use on maize in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 437-446, July.
    4. Jayne, T.S. & Mather, David & Mghenyi, Elliot, 2010. "Principal Challenges Confronting Smallholder Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1384-1398, October.
    5. Takashi Yamano & Keijiro Otsuka & Frank Place (ed.), 2011. "Emerging Development of Agriculture in East Africa," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-94-007-1201-0, July.
    6. Snapp, S. S. & Blackie, M. J. & Donovan, C., 2003. "Realigning research and extension to focus on farmers' constraints and opportunities," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 349-363, August.
    7. Kelly, Valerie & Adesina, Akinwumi A. & Gordon, Ann, 2003. "Expanding access to agricultural inputs in Africa: a review of recent market development experience," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 379-404, August.
    8. Henk A. J. Moll, 2005. "Costs and benefits of livestock systems and the role of market and nonmarket relationships," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(2), pages 181-193, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bashir Jama & David Kimani & Rebbie Harawa & Abednego Kiwia Mavuthu & Gudeta W. Sileshi, 2017. "Maize yield response, nitrogen use efficiency and financial returns to fertilizer on smallholder farms in southern Africa," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(3), pages 577-593, June.
    2. Maurice Cossi Ahozonlin & Luc Hippolyte Dossa, 2020. "Diversity and Resilience to Socio-Ecological Changes of Smallholder Lagune Cattle Farming Systems of Benin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Rodriguez, D & de Voil, P & Rufino, MC & Odendo, M & van Wijk, MT, 2017. "To mulch or to munch? Big modelling of big data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 32-42.
    4. Sergio Feliciano Come & Jose Ambrosio Ferreira Neto & Eunice Paula Armando Cavane, 2020. "The State of the Art of Agricultural Research on Maize Crop in Mozambique," Journal of Agricultural Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 8(4), pages 523-539, December.
    5. Nyagumbo, Isaiah & Mkuhlani, Siyabusa & Mupangwa, Walter & Rodriguez, Daniel, 2017. "Planting date and yield benefits from conservation agriculture practices across Southern Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 21-33.
    6. Houessou, Sandrine O. & Dossa, Luc Hippolyte & Diogo, Rodrigue V.C. & Houinato, Marcel & Buerkert, Andreas & Schlecht, Eva, 2019. "Change and continuity in traditional cattle farming systems of West African Coast countries: A case study from Benin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 112-122.
    7. Kathrin Hasler & Hans-Werner Olfs & Onno Omta & Stefanie Bröring, 2017. "Drivers for the Adoption of Different Eco-Innovation Types in the Fertilizer Sector: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, November.
    8. Lalani, Baqir & Dorward, Peter & Holloway, Garth & Wauters, Erwin, 2016. "Smallholder farmers' motivations for using Conservation Agriculture and the roles of yield, labour and soil fertility in decision making," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 80-90.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sheahan, Megan & Black, Roy & Jayne, T.S., 2013. "Are Kenyan farmers under-utilizing fertilizer? Implications for input intensification strategies and research," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 39-52.
    2. Sheahan, Megan & Black, Roy & Jayne, Thomas S., 2012. "Are Farmers Under-Utilizing Fertilizer? Evidence from Kenya," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126739, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Jeremy Foltz & Ursula Aldana & Paul Laris, 2014. "The Sahel's Silent Maize Revolution: Analyzing Maize Productivity in Mali at the Farm Level," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes, Volume IV: Sustainable Growth, pages 111-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. & Omonona, Bolarin T. & Sanou, Awa & Ogunleye, Wale O., 2017. "Is increasing inorganic fertilizer use for maize production in SSA a profitable proposition? Evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-51.
    5. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. & Jayne, Thomas & Muyanga, Milu & Sanou, Awa, 2017. "Are African Farmers Experiencing Improved Incentives To Use Fertilizer?," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 270632, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    6. Poulton, Colin & Dorward, Andrew & Kydd, Jonathan, 2010. "The Future of Small Farms: New Directions for Services, Institutions, and Intermediation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1413-1428, October.
    7. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. & Ogunleye,Wale Olatunji & Omonona,Bolarin Titus & Sanou,Awa & Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. & Ogunleye,Wale Olatunji & Omonona,Bolarin Titus & Sanou,Awa, 2015. "Is increasing inorganic fertilizer use in Sub-Saharan Africa a profitable proposition ? evidence from Nigeria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7201, The World Bank.
    8. Veronique Theriault & Melinda Smale & Hamza Haider, 2018. "Economic incentives to use fertilizer on maize under differing agro-ecological conditions in Burkina Faso," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(5), pages 1263-1277, October.
    9. Mkondiwa, Maxwell Gibson, 2015. "Whither Broad or Spatially Specific Fertilizer Recommendations?," Master's Theses and Plan B Papers 237344, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    10. TerAvest, Dan & Wandschneider, Philip R. & Thierfelder, Christian & Reganold, John P., 2019. "Diversifying conservation agriculture and conventional tillage cropping systems to improve the wellbeing of smallholder farmers in Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 23-35.
    11. Braja Bandhu Swain & Nils Teufel, 2017. "The impact of urbanisation on crop–livestock farming system: a comparative case study of India and Bangladesh," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 19(1), pages 161-180, April.
    12. Wanjala, Bernadette, 2016. "Can the big push approach end rural poverty in Africa? : Insights from Sauri millennium village in Kenya," Other publications TiSEM 5a686b22-6749-4e9e-8bf4-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Howard, Julie & Crawford, Eric & Kelly, Valerie & Demeke, Mulat & Jeje, Jose Jaime, 2003. "Promoting high-input maize technologies in Africa: the Sasakawa-Global 2000 experience in Ethiopia and Mozambique," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 335-348, August.
    14. Sheahan, Megan & Black, Roy & Jayne, Thomas S., 2012. "What is the Scope for Increased Fertilizer Use in Kenya?," Food Security International Development Working Papers 135283, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    15. Estelle Koussoubé & Céline Nauges, 2017. "Returns to fertiliser use: Does it pay enough? Some new evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(2), pages 183-210.
    16. Catherine Ragasa & Antony Chapoto, 2017. "Moving in the right direction? The role of price subsidies in fertilizer use and maize productivity in Ghana," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(2), pages 329-353, April.
    17. Diao, Xinshen & Pratt, Alejandro Nin, 2007. "Growth options and poverty reduction in Ethiopia - An economy-wide model analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 205-228, April.
    18. Kelly, Valerie A., 2005. "Farmers' Demand for Fertilizer in Sub-Saharan Africa," Staff Paper Series 11612, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    19. van Dijk, Michiel & Morley, Tomas & van Loon, Marloes & Reidsma, Pytrik & Tesfaye, Kindie & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2020. "Reducing the maize yield gap in Ethiopia: Decomposition and policy simulation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    20. Bachke, Maren Elise, 2019. "Do farmers’ organizations enhance the welfare of smallholders? Findings from the Mozambican national agricultural survey," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:142:y:2016:i:c:p:9-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.