IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0118114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improved Climate Risk Simulations for Rice in Arid Environments

Author

Listed:
  • Pepijn A J van Oort
  • Michiel E de Vries
  • Hiroe Yoshida
  • Kazuki Saito

Abstract

We integrated recent research on cardinal temperatures for phenology and early leaf growth, spikelet formation, early morning flowering, transpirational cooling, and heat- and cold-induced sterility into an existing to crop growth model ORYZA2000. We compared for an arid environment observed potential yields with yields simulated with default ORYZA2000, with modified subversions of ORYZA2000 and with ORYZA_S, a model developed for the region of interest in the 1990s. Rice variety ‘IR64’ was sown monthly 15-times in a row in two locations in Senegal. The Senegal River Valley is located in the Sahel, near the Sahara desert with extreme temperatures during day and night. The existing subroutines underestimated cold stress and overestimated heat stress. Forcing the model to use observed spikelet number and phenology and replacing the existing heat and cold subroutines improved accuracy of yield simulation from EF = −0.32 to EF =0.70 (EF is modelling efficiency). The main causes of improved accuracy were that the new model subversions take into account transpirational cooling (which is high in arid environments) and early morning flowering for heat sterility, and minimum rather than average temperature for cold sterility. Simulations were less accurate when also spikelet number and phenology were simulated. Model efficiency was 0.14 with new heat and cold routines and improved to 0.48 when using new cardinal temperatures for phenology and early leaf growth. The new adapted subversion of ORYZA2000 offers a powerful analytic tool for climate change impact assessment and cropping calendar optimisation in arid regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pepijn A J van Oort & Michiel E de Vries & Hiroe Yoshida & Kazuki Saito, 2015. "Improved Climate Risk Simulations for Rice in Arid Environments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-27, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0118114
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0118114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0118114
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0118114&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0118114?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouman, B. A.M. & Feng, Liping & Tuong, T.P. & Lu, Guoan & Wang, Huaqi & Feng, Yuehua, 2007. "Exploring options to grow rice using less water in northern China using a modelling approach: II. Quantifying yield, water balance components, and water productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-3), pages 23-33, March.
    2. Bouman, B.A.M. & Kropff, M.J. & Wopereis, M.C.S. & ten Berge, H.F.M. & van Laar, H.H., 2001. "ORYZA2000: modeling lowland rice," IRRI Books, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), number 281825, January.
    3. Yann de Mey & Matty Demont & Mandiaye Diagne, 2012. "Estimating Bird Damage to Rice in Africa: Evidence from the Senegal River Valley," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 175-200, February.
    4. Jing, Qi & Bouman, Bas & van Keulen, Herman & Hengsdijk, Huib & Cao, Weixing & Dai, Tingbo, 2008. "Disentangling the effect of environmental factors on yield and nitrogen uptake of irrigated rice in Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 177-188, October.
    5. Gaydon, D.S. & Meinke, H. & Rodriguez, D. & McGrath, D.J., 2012. "Comparing water options for irrigation farmers using Modern Portfolio Theory," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-9.
    6. Dingkuhn, M. & Sow, A. & Samb, A. & Diack, S. & Asch, F., 1995. "Climatic determinants of irrigated rice performance in the Sahel -- I. Photothermal and micro-climatic responses of flowering," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 385-410.
    7. Bouman, B.A.M. & van Laar, H.H., 2006. "Description and evaluation of the rice growth model ORYZA2000 under nitrogen-limited conditions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 249-273, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jing, Qi & Keulen, Herman van & Hengsdijk, Huib, 2010. "Modeling biomass, nitrogen and water dynamics in rice-wheat rotations," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(7), pages 433-443, September.
    2. Amarasingha, R.P.R.K. & Suriyagoda, L.D.B. & Marambe, B. & Gaydon, D.S. & Galagedara, L.W. & Punyawardena, R. & Silva, G.L.L.P. & Nidumolu, U. & Howden, M., 2015. "Simulation of crop and water productivity for rice (Oryza sativa L.) using APSIM under diverse agro-climatic conditions and water management techniques in Sri Lanka," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 132-143.
    3. Hayashi, Keiichi & Llorca, Lizzida & Rustini, Sri & Setyanto, Prihasto & Zaini, Zulkifli, 2018. "Reducing vulnerability of rainfed agriculture through seasonal climate predictions: A case study on the rainfed rice production in Southeast Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 66-76.
    4. Silva, João Vasco & Pede, Valerien O. & Radanielson, Ando M. & Kodama, Wataru & Duarte, Ary & de Guia, Annalyn H. & Malabayabas, Arelene Julia B. & Pustika, Arlyna Budi & Argosubekti, Nuning & Vithoon, 2022. "Revisiting yield gaps and the scope for sustainable intensification for irrigated lowland rice in Southeast Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. Grotelüschen, Kristina & Gaydon, Donald S. & Langensiepen, Matthias & Ziegler, Susanne & Kwesiga, Julius & Senthilkumar, Kalimuthu & Whitbread, Anthony M. & Becker, Mathias, 2021. "Assessing the effects of management and hydro-edaphic conditions on rice in contrasting East African wetlands using experimental and modelling approaches," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    6. Boling, A.A. & Tuong, T.P. & van Keulen, H. & Bouman, B.A.M. & Suganda, H. & Spiertz, J.H.J., 2010. "Yield gap of rainfed rice in farmers' fields in Central Java, Indonesia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(5), pages 307-315, June.
    7. Gao, Ya & Sun, Chen & Ramos, Tiago B. & Huo, Zailin & Huang, Guanhua & Xu, Xu, 2023. "Modeling nitrogen dynamics and biomass production in rice paddy fields of cold regions with the ORYZA-N model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).
    8. Timsina, J. & Buresh, R.J. & Dobermann, A. & Dixon, J. (ed.), 2011. "Rice-maize systems in Asia: current situation and potential," IRRI Books, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), number 164490, January.
    9. Yu, Qianan & Cui, Yuanlai, 2022. "Improvement and testing of ORYZA model water balance modules for alternate wetting and drying irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    10. Antonopoulos, Vassilis Z., 2010. "Modelling of water and nitrogen balances in the ponded water and soil profile of rice fields in Northern Greece," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 321-330, December.
    11. Wang, Weiguang & Yu, Zhongbo & Zhang, Wei & Shao, Quanxi & Zhang, Yiwei & Luo, Yufeng & Jiao, Xiyun & Xu, Junzeng, 2014. "Responses of rice yield, irrigation water requirement and water use efficiency to climate change in China: Historical simulation and future projections," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 249-261.
    12. Tian, Zhan & Zhong, Honglin & Sun, Laixiang & Fischer, Günther & van Velthuizen, Harrij & Liang, Zhuoran, 2014. "Improving performance of Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) modeling by cross-scale model coupling: An application to japonica rice production in Northeast China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 290(C), pages 155-164.
    13. Belder, P. & Bouman, B. A.M. & Spiertz, J.H.J., 2007. "Exploring options for water savings in lowland rice using a modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-3), pages 91-114, January.
    14. Boling, A.A. & Bouman, B. A.M. & Tuong, T.P. & Murty, M.V.R. & Jatmiko, S.Y., 2007. "Modelling the effect of groundwater depth on yield-increasing interventions in rainfed lowland rice in Central Java, Indonesia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-3), pages 115-139, January.
    15. Jing, Qi & Bouman, Bas & van Keulen, Herman & Hengsdijk, Huib & Cao, Weixing & Dai, Tingbo, 2008. "Disentangling the effect of environmental factors on yield and nitrogen uptake of irrigated rice in Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 177-188, October.
    16. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Zhuang, Qianlai & Luo, Yufeng, 2020. "Adaptation of paddy rice in China to climate change: The effects of shifting sowing date on yield and irrigation water requirement," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    17. Dutta, S. K & Laing, Alison M. & Kumar, S. & Gathala, Mahesh K. & Singh, Ajoy K. & Gaydon, D.S. & Poulton, P., 2020. "Improved water management practices improve cropping system profitability and smallholder farmers’ incomes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    18. Movedi, Ermes & Valiante, Daniele & Colosio, Alessandro & Corengia, Luca & Cossa, Stefano & Confalonieri, Roberto, 2022. "A new approach for modeling crop-weed interaction targeting management support in operational contexts: A case study on the rice weeds barnyardgrass and red rice," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 463(C).
    19. Dingkuhn, Michael, 1996. "Modelling concepts for the phenotypic plasticity of dry matter and nitrogen partitioning in rice," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 52(2-3), pages 383-397.
    20. Senthilkumar, K. & Bindraban, P.S. & Thiyagarajan, T.M. & de Ridder, N. & Giller, K.E., 2008. "Modified rice cultivation in Tamil Nadu, India: Yield gains and farmers' (lack of) acceptance," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 82-94, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0118114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.