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Modeling maize yield responses to improvement in nutrient, water and cultivar inputs in sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Folberth, Christian
  • Yang, Hong
  • Gaiser, Thomas
  • Abbaspour, Karim C.
  • Schulin, Rainer

Abstract

Maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are at the lower end of the global range of yields since decades. This study used the large-scale agricultural crop growth model GEPIC to simulate maize yield responses to different management scenarios concerning: (a) level of nutrient supply; (b) extent of irrigated areas; and (c) low- or high-yielding cultivars. The results show that extending irrigation or planting an improved cultivar produced little effect on maize yield at the current level of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) application rates. Increasing nutrient supply to the level commonly applied in high-input regions would allow for a tripling of maize yields from the current 1.4–4.5Mgha−1 and could increase yields even to 7Mgha−1 in combination with an improved cultivar. Irrigation was found to be especially effective for lifting very low yields concomitant to improved nutrient supply and cultivar. The highest yields when combining all the three improved management practices were predicted for East and Southern Africa with mostly 8–10Mgha−1, and West Africa with 7–9Mgha−1. The lowest yield potentials were found for the Western parts of Central Africa where they often reached only about 4–6Mgha−1, due to low solar radiation and low nutrient availability on highly weathered soils. The inputs required for reaching these high yield levels would be very costly. Nevertheless, the simulation shows that with a supply of only 50kgN ha−1 and 18kg P ha−1, which is less than one third of the current level in high-input countries, the maize yield could be doubled for most areas in SSA. The resulting increase in maize production would be about 10 times of the amount currently imported to the sub-continent including food aid.

Suggested Citation

  • Folberth, Christian & Yang, Hong & Gaiser, Thomas & Abbaspour, Karim C. & Schulin, Rainer, 2013. "Modeling maize yield responses to improvement in nutrient, water and cultivar inputs in sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 22-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:119:y:2013:i:c:p:22-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.04.002
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    3. Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan & Gaiser, Thomas, 2018. "Yield effects of selected agronomic innovation packages in maize cropping systems of six countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," Discussion Papers 273119, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    4. Kirui, Oliver & Mrzabaev, Alisher, 2015. "Costs of landj degradation in Eastern Africa," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212007, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Chul-Hee Lim & Yuyoung Choi & Moonil Kim & Soo Jeong Lee & Christian Folberth & Woo-Kyun Lee, 2018. "Spatially Explicit Assessment of Agricultural Water Equilibrium in the Korean Peninsula," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Dennis Junior Choruma & Frank Chukwuzuoke Akamagwuna & Nelson Oghenekaro Odume, 2022. "Simulating the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yields Using EPIC: A Case Study in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, May.
    7. Mihretie, Fekremariam Asargew & Tsunekawa, Atsushi & Haregeweyn, Nigussie & Adgo, Enyew & Tsubo, Mitsuru & Masunaga, Tsugiyuki & Meshesha, Derege Tsegaye & Ebabu, Kindiye & Nigussie, Zerihun & Sato, S, 2022. "Exploring teff yield variability related with farm management and soil property in contrasting agro-ecologies in Ethiopia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi & Gaiser, Thomas, 2017. "Change in crop management strategies could double the maize yield in Africa," Discussion Papers 260154, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    9. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    10. Amit Kumar Srivastava & Cho Miltin Mboh & Babacar Faye & Thomas Gaiser & Arnim Kuhn & Engida Ermias & Frank Ewert, 2019. "Options for Sustainable Intensification of Maize Production in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Yibo Luan & Wenquan Zhu & Xuefeng Cui & Günther Fischer & Terence P. Dawson & Peijun Shi & Zhenke Zhang, 2019. "Cropland yield divergence over Africa and its implication for mitigating food insecurity," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 707-734, June.
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    14. Adam M. Komarek & Siwa Msangi, 2019. "Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(5), pages 615-628, September.

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