IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v104y2011i9p703-713.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring global irrigation patterns: A multilevel modelling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Neumann, Kathleen
  • Stehfest, Elke
  • Verburg, Peter H.
  • Siebert, Stefan
  • Müller, Christoph
  • Veldkamp, Tom

Abstract

Globally, areas that are equipped for irrigation have almost doubled in size over the past 50years and further expansions are expected for the future, to meet a growing food demand. For developing countries, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) expects these areas to be expanded by 40 million ha, by 2030. Knowledge about the constraints to irrigation and spatially explicit information about the potential for irrigation expansion, however, are lacking on a global scale. The objective of our study was to explain the global pattern of irrigated croplands and to identify cropping regions where irrigation is likely to be expanded. We accounted for biophysical determinants, such as humidity and slope, mainly at grid-cell level. Socio-economic and governance determinants, for example, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and control of corruption, were primarily considered on a country level, given the limitations in availability of sub-national data and the role of national level governance in irrigation decisions. To identify the variability of the determinants within these two spatial levels, we conducted a multilevel analysis. This is a method employing regression models that explicitly account for hierarchically structured data. Results show significant variability in terms of irrigation. While 56% of the global variance in irrigation occurs between countries, 44% occurs within countries. Our results suggest that it is necessary to consider biophysical, socio-economic and governance information for identifying cropland areas that are likely to be under irrigation. Under current conditions, conversion from rainfed to irrigated cropland is most likely in eastern China, northern Africa, and parts of the Mediterranean region.

Suggested Citation

  • Neumann, Kathleen & Stehfest, Elke & Verburg, Peter H. & Siebert, Stefan & Müller, Christoph & Veldkamp, Tom, 2011. "Exploring global irrigation patterns: A multilevel modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(9), pages 703-713.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:104:y:2011:i:9:p:703-713
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2011.08.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X11001181
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2011.08.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Verburg & Bas Eickhout & Hans Meijl, 2008. "A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 57-77, March.
    2. Shah, Tushaar & Molden, David J. & Sakthivadivel, Ramasamy & Seckler, David, 2000. "The global groundwater situation: overview of opportunities and challenges," IWMI Books, International Water Management Institute, number 113506.
    3. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary. In Russian," IWMI Books, Reports H041260, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Omar Paccagnella, 2006. "Centering or Not Centering in Multilevel Models? The Role of the Group Mean and the Assessment of Group Effects," Evaluation Review, , vol. 30(1), pages 66-85, February.
    5. M. Kumar & O. Singh, 2005. "Virtual Water in Global Food and Water Policy Making: Is There a Need for Rethinking?," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(6), pages 759-789, December.
    6. Overmars, Koen P. & Verburg, Peter H., 2006. "Multilevel modelling of land use from field to village level in the Philippines," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 435-456, September.
    7. Lise, Wietze, 2000. "Factors influencing people's participation in forest management in India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 379-392, September.
    8. Theesfeld, Insa, 2004. "Constraints on Collective Action in a Transitional Economy: The Case of Bulgaria's Irrigation Sector," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 251-271, February.
    9. Wriedt, Gunter & van der Velde, Marijn & Aloe, Alberto & Bouraoui, Fayal, 2009. "A European irrigation map for spatially distributed agricultural modelling," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 771-789, May.
    10. Chapagain, A.K. & Hoekstra, A.Y. & Savenije, H.H.G. & Gautam, R., 2006. "The water footprint of cotton consumption: An assessment of the impact of worldwide consumption of cotton products on the water resources in the cotton producing countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 186-203, November.
    11. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike, 2009. "Generating plausible crop distribution maps for Sub-Saharan Africa using a spatially disaggregated data fusion and optimization approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 99(2-3), pages 126-140, February.
    12. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture," IWMI Books, Reports H040193, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Takahiro Akita, 2003. "Decomposing regional income inequality in China and Indonesia using two-stage nested Theil decomposition method," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 37(1), pages 55-77, February.
    14. Veldkamp, A. & Fresco, L.O., 1997. "Reconstructing land use drivers and their spatial scale dependence for Costa Rica (1973 and 1984)," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 19-43, September.
    15. A. Hoekstra & A. Chapagain, 2007. "Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 35-48, January.
    16. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary," IWMI Books, Reports H039769, International Water Management Institute.
    17. Shah, T. & Molden, D. & Sakthivadivel, R. & Seckler, D., 2000. "The global groundwater situation: overview of opportunities and challenges," IWMI Books, Reports H025885, International Water Management Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mwaura, Francis M. & Muwanika, Fred R., 2018. "Providing irrigation water as a public utility to enhance agricultural productivity in Uganda," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 99-109.
    2. Pratap S. Birthal & Jaweriah Hazrana & Digvijay S. Negi, 2019. "A multilevel analysis of drought risk in Indian agriculture: implications for managing risk at different geographical levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 499-513, December.
    3. Qiao, Jianmin & Cao, Qian & Liu, Yupeng & Wu, Quanyuan, 2018. "Scale dependence and parameter sensitivity of the EPIC model in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of north China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 390(C), pages 51-61.
    4. Yu, Qiangyi & Wu, Wenbin & Verburg, Peter H. & van Vliet, Jasper & Yang, Peng & Zhou, Qingbo & Tang, Huajun, 2013. "A survey-based exploration of land-system dynamics in an agricultural region of Northeast China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 106-116.
    5. Malek, Žiga & Tieskens, Koen F. & Verburg, Peter H., 2019. "Explaining the global spatial distribution of organic crop producers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. Sun & P. Wu & Y. Wang & X. Zhao, 2013. "Temporal Variability of Water Footprint for Maize Production: The Case of Beijing from 1978 to 2008," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2447-2463, May.
    2. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas W. & Taheripour, Farzad & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia, 2013. "Water Scarcity and International Agricultural Trade," Conference papers 332335, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Christopher O. AKINBILE & Andrew E. ERAZUA & Toju E. BABALOLA & Fidelis O. AJIBADE, 2016. "Environmental implications of animal wastes pollution on agricultural soil and water quality," Soil and Water Research, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 172-180.
    4. Mohammad Alauddin & Upali A. Amarasinghe & Bharat R. Sharma, 2014. "Four decades of rice water productivity in Bangladesh: A spatio-temporal analysis of district level panel data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 51-64.
    5. Scheierling, Susanne M. & Treguer, David O. & Booker, James F. & Decker, Elisabeth, 2014. "How to assess agricultural water productivity ? looking for water in the agricultural productivity and efficiency literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6982, The World Bank.
    6. Awulachew, Seleshi Bekele, 2011. "Water-centered growth challenges, innovations and interventions in Ethiopia," Conference Papers h044260, International Water Management Institute.
    7. Cunha, Henrique & Loureiro, Dália & Sousa, Gonçalo & Covas, Dídia & Alegre, Helena, 2019. "A comprehensive water balance methodology for collective irrigation systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Molle, Francois & Berkoff, Jeremy, 2007. "Water pricing in irrigation: the lifetime of an idea," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    9. Bossio, Deborah & Geheb, Kim & Critchley, William, 2010. "Managing water by managing land: Addressing land degradation to improve water productivity and rural livelihoods," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 536-542, April.
    10. Batidzirai, B. & Smeets, E.M.W. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. "Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials—Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6598-6630.
    11. Tiziano Gomiero, 2016. "Soil Degradation, Land Scarcity and Food Security: Reviewing a Complex Challenge," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, March.
    12. Katerji, Nader & Campi, Pasquale & Mastrorilli, Marcello, 2013. "Productivity, evapotranspiration, and water use efficiency of corn and tomato crops simulated by AquaCrop under contrasting water stress conditions in the Mediterranean region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 14-26.
    13. Feng Huang & Baoguo Li, 2020. "What is the Redline Water Withdrawal for Crop Production in China?—Projection to 2030 Derived from the Past Twenty-Year Trajectory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, May.
    14. Gong, Daozhi & Mei, Xurong & Hao, Weiping & Wang, Hanbo & Caylor, Kelly K., 2017. "Comparison of ET partitioning and crop coefficients between partial plastic mulched and non-mulched maize fields," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 23-34.
    15. Maite Aldaya & Pedro Martínez-Santos & M. Llamas, 2010. "Incorporating the Water Footprint and Virtual Water into Policy: Reflections from the Mancha Occidental Region, Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(5), pages 941-958, March.
    16. Holland, Jonathan E. & Luck, Gary W. & Max Finlayson, C., 2015. "Threats to food production and water quality in the Murray–Darling Basin of Australia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 55-70.
    17. María Jesús Beltrán & Esther Velázquez, 2011. "Del metabolismo social al metabolismo hídrico," Documentos de Trabajo de la Asociación de Economía Ecológica en España 01_2011, Asociación de Economía Ecológica en España.
    18. Zwart, Sander J. & Bastiaanssen, Wim G.M. & de Fraiture, Charlotte & Molden, David J., 2010. "WATPRO: A remote sensing based model for mapping water productivity of wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(10), pages 1628-1636, October.
    19. repec:kqi:journl:2017-2-1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Bossio, Deborah & Noble, Andrew D. & Aloysius, Noel & Pretty, J. & Penning de Vries, F., 2008. "Ecosystem benefits of \u2018bright\u2019 spots," IWMI Books, Reports H041603, International Water Management Institute.
    21. Andrew J. Wiltshire & Gillian Kay & Jemma L. Gornall & Richard A. Betts, 2013. "The Impact of Climate, CO 2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-23, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:104:y:2011:i:9:p:703-713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.