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Portrait of the economist as a young man: Raúl Prebisch's evolving views on the business cycle and money, 1919-1949

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  • Vernengo, Matías
  • Pérez Caldentey, Esteban

Abstract

This paper analyses Raúl Prebisch's lesser-known contributions to economic theory, related to the business cycle and heavily informed by the Argentine experience. His views of the cycle emphasize the common nature of the cycle in the centre and the periphery as one unified phenomenon. While his rejection of orthodoxy is less than complete, some elements of what would become a more Keynesian position are developed. In particular, there is a preoccupation with the management of the balance of payments and the need for capital controls as a macroeconomic management tool, well before Keynes and White's plans led to the Bretton Woods agreement. In the process it is clear that Prebisch developed several ideas that are still relevant for understanding cyclical fluctuations in the periphery and that he became more concerned with the ability to take advantage of cyclical booms to maintain sustained economic growth.

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  • Vernengo, Matías & Pérez Caldentey, Esteban, 2012. "Portrait of the economist as a young man: Raúl Prebisch's evolving views on the business cycle and money, 1919-1949," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11579
    Note: Includes bibliography
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles P. Kindleberger & Robert Z. Aliber, 2005. "Manias, Panics and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-62804-5, October.
    2. Gurrieri, Adolfo, 2001. "The ideas of young Prebisch," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    3. Pedro Tedde & Francisco Comín & Carles Sudrià Triay & Rafael Anes Álvarez & Pablo Martín Aceña & Carlos Marichal & Leonor Ludlow & Mario Cerutti, 1994. "La formación de los bancos centrales en España y América Latina (Siglos XIX y XX). Vol I: España y México," Estudios de Historia Económica, Banco de España, number 29, November.
    4. Helleiner, Eric, 2009. "Central bankers as good neighbours: US money doctors in Latin America during the 1940s," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 5-25, April.
    5. Luca Fiorito & Matías Vernengo, 2009. "The Other J.M.: John Maurice Clark and the Keynesian Revolution," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 899-916.
    6. Vernengo, Matías & Pérez Caldentey, Esteban, 2011. "Understanding the business cycle in Latin America: Prebisch's contributions," Estudios y Perspectivas – Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México 4908, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, October.
    8. John Toye & Richard Toye, 2003. "The Origins and Interpretation of the Prebisch-Singer Thesis," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 437-467, Fall.
    9. Esteban Pérez-Caldentey & Matías Vernengo, 2007. "A Tale of Two Monetary Reforms: Argentinean Convertibility in Historical Perspective," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2007_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Gallagher, 2012. "The Myth of Financial Protectionism: The New (and old) Economics of Capital Controls," Working Papers wp278, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    2. Jonas Rama & John Hall, 2021. "Raúl Prebisch and the evolving uses of ‘centre-periphery’ in economic analysis," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 315-332, July.
    3. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo, 2016. "Reading Keynes in Buenos Aires: Prebisch and the Dynamics of Capitalism," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1725-1741.
    4. Ilene Grabel, 2015. "The rebranding of capital controls in an era of productive incoherence," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 7-43, February.

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