IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2023-02-52.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Output and Energy Prices Fluctuations in Response to Market Shocks: System Dynamic Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Valeriy Kozytskyy

    (Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Ukraine,)

  • Marianna Oliskevych

    (Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Ukraine,)

  • Galyna Beregova

    (Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine.)

  • Nelya Pabyrivska

    (Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine.)

Abstract

Regardless of the fact, whether governments of particular country implemented the strong lockdown measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 or not, the economies of each country all over the word have been suffered considerably due to the shocks caused by the pandemic. We observed slowdown of economic activity, macroeconomic instability and shifts in consumption preferences supplemented by rising unemployment as well as significant fluctuation of demand and production capability. The research problem addressed in this paper focuses on dynamic properties of output and inflation fluctuations that occur in response to economic shocks different magnitudes and types. We use a system dynamic approach and constructs two system dynamic models to examine the dynamics of output, prices, wage and inflation. The paper indicates ranges of relevant parameters values that correspond with sensitivity of output to demand and production capability changes related to possibility of reaching new equilibrium point. To explore the variety of prices and wage behavior in response to shocks we evaluate distinguish possible phase diagrams associated with stable node, stable focus, circle, unstable focus and unstable node. The results is a contribution to discussion of the policy issues related to mitigation of recession caused by unpredictable and strong shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeriy Kozytskyy & Marianna Oliskevych & Galyna Beregova & Nelya Pabyrivska, 2023. "Output and Energy Prices Fluctuations in Response to Market Shocks: System Dynamic Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 462-466, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-02-52
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/13371/7233
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/13371
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andriy Matviychuk, 2006. "Fuzzy Logic Approach To Identification And Forecasting Of Financial Time Series Using Elliott Wave Theory," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(2), pages 51-68, November.
    2. Yaser Kanani Maman & Abbas Maleki, 2022. "Energy Mix Optimization from Energy Security Perspective Based on Stochastic Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8.
    3. Iryna Lukianenko & Marianna Oliskevych, 2017. "Evidence of Asymmetries and Nonlinearity of Unemployment and Labour Force Participation Rate in Ukraine," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 578-601.
    4. Roman Dorczak & Marzanna Farnicka & Inetta Nowosad, 2021. "Dilemmas in Managing the COVID-19 Crisis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Gabriel Oduyemi & Taiwo Owoeye, 2020. "Oil Price Fluctuation and Health Outcomes in an Oil Exporting Country: Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 212-220.
    6. Ben Shepherd, 2018. "International input-output linkages and exogenous shock transmission: a simple model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2362-2370.
    7. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Marianna Oliskevych & Iryna Lukianenko, 2020. "European unemployment nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles: Markov switching approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 22(4), pages 375-401.
    9. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
    10. Lidiya Guryanova & Olena Bolotova & Vitalii Gvozdytskyi & Sergienko Olena, 2020. "Long-term financial sustainability: An evaluation methodology with threats considerations," RIVISTA DI STUDI SULLA SOSTENIBILITA', FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(1), pages 47-69.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2024. "The Covid‐19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2563-2580, July.
    2. Christian Breuer, 2020. "Goverment Debt Post COVID-19: Back To Golden Rules," Chemnitz Economic Papers 041, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised Feb 2020.
    3. Das, Sanchita Basu & Sen, Rahul, 2022. "Trade Interdependencies in COVID-19-Related Essential Medical Goods: Role of Trade Facilitation and Cooperation for the Asian Economies," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 666, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Abbas, Khizar & Han, Mengyao & Xu, Deyi & Butt, Khalid Manzoor & Baz, Khan & Cheng, Jinhua & Zhu, Yongguang & Hussain, Sanwal, 2024. "Exploring synergistic and individual causal effects of rare earth elements and renewable energy on multidimensional economic complexity for sustainable economic development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    5. Patrik Barisic & Tibor Kovac, 2022. "The effectiveness of the fiscal policy response to COVID-19 through the lens of short and long run labor market effects of COVID-19 measures," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 43-81.
    6. Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Xinyi & Tang, Jing & Guo, Yaoqi, 2022. "The impact of international rare earth trade competition on global value chain upgrading from the industrial chain perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. Walas-Trębacz Jolanta & Bartusik Katarzyna, 2023. "Identification of risk types in innovation projects," International Journal of Contemporary Management, Sciendo, vol. 59(4), pages 74-93, December.
    8. Beri, Parfait & Molem, Christopher Sama, 2024. "The impact of economic globalisation on labour market outcomes in Africa," MPRA Paper 122554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ando, Mitsuyo & Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on trade in services," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Yang, Yang & Liu, Qing & Chang, Chia-Hsun, 2023. "China-Europe freight transportation under the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic and government restriction measures," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Nadiia Davydenko & Svitlana Boiko & Olena Cherniavska & Maryna Nehrey, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of State-Owned Banks on the Sustainability of Public Finances," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-23, September.
    12. Amjad Masood & Junaid Ahmed & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2022. "Gravity of Covid-19," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(1), pages 60-68.
      • Masood, Amjad & Ahmed, Junaid & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2021. "Gravity of Covid-19," MPRA Paper 109651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Orsola Costantini, 2020. "The Eurozone as a Trap and a Hostage: Obstacles and Prospects of the Debate on European Fiscal Rules," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(5), pages 284-291, September.
    14. Claudius Graebner & Jakob Hafele, 2020. "The emergence of core-periphery structures in the European Union: a complexity perspective," ICAE Working Papers 113, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    15. Khilda Faoziyah Arifah & Jonghwa Kim, 2022. "The Importance of Agricultural Export Performance on the Economic Growth of Indonesia: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Ines Kersan‐Škabić, 2022. "The COVID‐19 pandemic and the internationalization of production: A review of the literature," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(2), March.
    17. Trocinescu Beatrice & Dan Mihaela-Cornelia, 2024. "The Romania-Brazil Trade Relationship under the Threat of the Coronavirus Pandemic and the War in Ukraine," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 635-642.
    18. Muhamad Rias K V Zainuddin & Nurul Aishah Khairuddin & Hakimah Nur Ahmad Hamidi, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on Malaysia’s Bilateral Export - Testing for Heterogeneous Effects in the Product Category," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 3(Early Vie), pages 1-5.
    19. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Development Aid and Export Resilience in Developing Countries: A Reference to Aid for Trade," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-31, July.
    20. Imad A. Moosa & Ebrahim Merza, 2022. "The effect of COVID-19 on foreign direct investment inflows: stylised facts and some explanations," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    output fluctuation; system dynamic model; energy prices; shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-02-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.