IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2022-01-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Mix Optimization from Energy Security Perspective Based on Stochastic Models

Author

Listed:
  • Yaser Kanani Maman

    (Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.)

  • Abbas Maleki

    (Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.)

Abstract

As a problem, generally, energy security components do not interfere with the calculation of the optimal energy supply situation. Energy security indices so-called passive indices cannot illustrate comprehensive optimal situation. In this paper, we are looking to find a solution to make a framework of the impact of energy security on energy supply in order to obtain comprehensive analysis of the economic optimal point. Method is based on the competition of energy costs to meet demand during the study period. Threats that have been addressed in the energy security are seen as risky and stochastic parameters in the model. The nature of these parameters is of uncertainty type, therefore, based on the probable scenarios of the stochastic model, the perspective of the energy supply system is drawn up based optimizing the supply of different carrier energy. We apply this method on Iran s import of gasoline as a national threat of energy supply. According to the results, in the period when there are threats of energy imports, energy storage is a low-cost and safe way to compensate for the damage caused by threats. Assuming an annual growth of 5%, capacity can be increased to 8 million barrels during the threat period. The optimal index varies in this period between 0.04 and 0.06.

Suggested Citation

  • Yaser Kanani Maman & Abbas Maleki, 2022. "Energy Mix Optimization from Energy Security Perspective Based on Stochastic Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-01-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/9504/6182/29438
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/9504/6182
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lu, Weiwei & Su, Meirong & Fath, Brian D. & Zhang, Mingqi & Hao, Yan, 2016. "A systematic method of evaluation of the Chinese natural gas supply security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 858-867.
    2. Yifei Shi & Xinghang Ge & Xueliang Yuan & Qingsong Wang & Jon Kellett & Fangqiu Li & Kaiming Ba, 2019. "An Integrated Indicator System and Evaluation Model for Regional Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-23, April.
    3. Seljom, Pernille & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2017. "The impact of policy actions and future energy prices on the cost-optimal development of the energy system in Norway and Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 85-102.
    4. Seyedashkan Madani, 2021. "The BRI and its Implications for China s Energy Security: The Four As Model Perspective," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 549-559.
    5. Lin, Boqiang & Raza, Muhammad Yousaf, 2020. "Analysis of energy security indicators and CO2 emissions. A case from a developing economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valeriy Kozytskyy & Marianna Oliskevych & Galyna Beregova & Nelya Pabyrivska, 2023. "Output and Energy Prices Fluctuations in Response to Market Shocks: System Dynamic Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 462-466, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kangyin Dong & Yalin Han & Yue Dou & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2022. "Moving toward carbon neutrality: Assessing natural gas import security and its impact on CO2 emissions," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 751-770, August.
    2. Zhao, Qin & Zhang, Houcheng & Hu, Ziyang & Hou, Shujin, 2021. "Performance evaluation of a new hybrid system consisting of a photovoltaic module and an absorption heat transformer for electricity production and heat upgrading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Dahl, Roy Endré & Lorentzen, Sindre & Oglend, Atle & Osmundsen, Petter, 2017. "Pro-cyclical petroleum investments and cost overruns in Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 68-78.
    4. Zhaoming Yang & Qi Xiang & Yuxuan He & Shiliang Peng & Michael Havbro Faber & Enrico Zio & Lili Zuo & Huai Su & Jinjun Zhang, 2023. "Resilience of Natural Gas Pipeline System: A Review and Outlook," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Whether crude oil dependence and CO2 emissions influence military expenditure in net oil importing countries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Borrett, Stuart R. & Sheble, Laura & Moody, James & Anway, Evan C., 2018. "Bibliometric review of ecological network analysis: 2010–2016," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 382(C), pages 63-82.
    7. Raza, Muhammad Yousaf & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Future outlook and influencing factors analysis of natural gas consumption in Bangladesh: An economic and policy perspectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. Xuejie Li & Yuan Xue & Yuxing Li & Qingshan Feng, 2022. "An Optimization Method for a Compressor Standby Scheme Based on Reliability Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, November.
    9. Yang Yang & Suocheng Dong & Tamir Boldanov & Fujia Li & Hao Cheng & Qian Liu & Yu Li & Zehong Li, 2021. "Construction of the Primorsky No. 1 and No. 2 International Transport Corridors: Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, February.
    10. Laura Montalbán-Domingo & Madeleine Aguilar-Morocho & Tatiana García-Segura & Eugenio Pellicer, 2020. "Study of Social and Environmental Needs for the Selection of Sustainable Criteria in the Procurement of Public Works," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-21, September.
    11. Wang, Delu & Ma, Gang & Song, Xuefeng & Liu, Yun, 2017. "Energy price slump and policy response in the coal-chemical industry district: A case study of Ordos with a system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 325-339.
    12. Vivoda, Vlado, 2019. "LNG import diversification and energy security in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 967-974.
    13. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xing, Wenwu & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2022. "The impact of energy security on income inequality: The key role of economic development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    14. Ou, Shiqi & Lin, Zhenhong & Qi, Liang & Li, Jie & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven, 2018. "The dual-credit policy: Quantifying the policy impact on plug-in electric vehicle sales and industry profits in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 597-610.
    15. Zhu, Bo & Deng, Yuanyue & Hu, Xin, 2023. "Global energy security: Do internal and external risk spillovers matter? A multilayer network method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Vivoda, Vlado, 2022. "LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    17. Wei, Xinxing & Shi, Xilin & Li, Yinping & Li, Peng & Ban, Shengnan & Zhao, Kai & Ma, Hongling & Liu, Hejuan & Yang, Chunhe, 2023. "A comprehensive feasibility evaluation of salt cavern oil energy storage system in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    18. Mingjing Guo & Yan Bu & Jinhua Cheng & Ziyu Jiang, 2018. "Natural Gas Security in China: A Simulation of Evolutionary Trajectory and Obstacle Degree Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    19. Attila Buzási & Bettina Szimonetta Jäger, 2021. "Exploratory Analysis of Urban Sustainability by Applying a Strategy-Based Tailor-Made Weighting Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-18, June.
    20. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Nybø, Astrid, 2020. "Transitioning remote Arctic settlements to renewable energy systems – A modelling study of Longyearbyen, Svalbard," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Security of Demand; Energy Security Indicator; Stochastic Model; Scenario;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-01-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.