IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2022-02-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of Conditional Oil Volatility on Exchange Rate and Stock Markets Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Tarek Bouazizi

    (University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia,)

  • Fatma Mrad

    (Faculty of Economics and Management of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia,)

  • Arafet Hamida

    (Higher Institute of Management of Gab s, Tunisia)

  • Sawsen Nafti

    (Faculty of Economics and Management of Sousse, Tunisia)

Abstract

The underlying volatility at a given time is called conditional volatility at this particular time and is modeled by various ARMA-GARCH conditional variance equations (GARCH, EGARCH, GJR, APARCH, IGARCH). How important are oil price fluctuations and oil price volatility in foreign exchange markets and stock markets? What is the nature of the relationship between these three markets? What are the political implications if volatility, using appropriate models to determine, turns out to be important? We evaluate these questions empirically, using the specification of Narayan and Narayan (2010). This specification, in our paper, deals with the determination of volatility appropriate models, based on information criteria, of the ARMA-ARCH family conditional volatility of oil returns using daily data for each country independently (i), and revolve around an analysis of the effect of the volatility of black gold price on the returns of the other two markets in Oil Importing Developed Countries category (ii). The selection of appropriate models of oil returns according to the period of the chosen data gives the ARMA(2,2)- GJR(1,2) model for the Germany and the ARMA(2,2)-GJR(2,2) model for the Japan and the USA. The results that the conditional variances of oil returns, foreign exchange market returns and stock market returns are contested and they have a long-term relationship in different countries. In addition, the results of the granger causality tests and the study of impulse response functions have shown that it has a sending effect of the volatility of oil prices on most foreign exchange markets and stock markets, highlighting the strong explanatory power of market volatility, but bidirectional causality is not always present. Our empirical results involved in the prevention of shocks are important for policymakers, for portfolio managers seeking optimal portfolio allocation, for monetary authorities who are studying changes in the exchange rate of the national currency against currencies, for oil-importing countries seeking to minimize their spending on crude oil, and for oil-exporting countries seeking the sound management of oil reserves. They also show that the volatility of crude oil prices on the world market is generally more significant for foreign exchange and stock markets than the volatility of oil price in the local market. This main conclusion gives political implications to policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarek Bouazizi & Fatma Mrad & Arafet Hamida & Sawsen Nafti, 2022. "Effects of Conditional Oil Volatility on Exchange Rate and Stock Markets Returns," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 53-71, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-02-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/12826/6657
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/12826
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohamed AROURI & Christophe RAULT, 2009. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Stock Markets: Evidence from Panel Analysis in GCC Countries," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1299, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thobekile Qabhobho, 2023. "Assessing the Asymmetric Effect of Local Realized Exchange Rate Volatility and Implied Volatilities in Energy Market on Exchange Rate Returns in BRICS," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 231-239, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kalina Dimitrova & Luca Fantacci, 2009. "Financial stability, monetary autonomy and fiscal interference: Bulgaria in search of its way, 1879-1913," SEEMHN papers 3, National Bank of Serbia.
    2. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    3. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
    4. Chibueze E. Onyeke & Ifeoma Nwakoby & Josaphat U. J. Onwumere & Ifeoma Ihegboro & Chidiebere Nnamani, 2020. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Sectoral Returns in Nigeria Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 208-215.
    5. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return and volatility relationship," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 41-54.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market activities: Asymmetric effect with quantile regression," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(9), pages 1910-1920.
    7. Durga Prasad Samontaray & Sultan Nugali & Bokkasam Sasidhar, 2014. "A Study of the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market: Saudi Perspective," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 120-127, October.
    8. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2009. "A Convex Hull Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Trade Openness and Growth," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20906, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    9. T.P. Ghosh, 2019. "Economic Diversification and the State of Oil Dependency of UAE Stock Returns-An Analysis of ADX Indices 2014-2019," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(4), pages 199-199, November.
    10. Aimon, Hasdi & SanyDwita, & Susanto, Perengki, 2020. "The Relationship between Consumption and Imports of Fuel Oil in Indonesia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(2), pages 125-136.
    11. Agnieszka Chidlow & Anna Morgan-Thomas & Pervez N. Ghauri, 2010. "Data Collection Procedures Equivalence in International Business Research," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp977, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
    13. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "Time-varying effect of oil market shocks on the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 150-163.
    14. Mehmet Songur, 2021. "A Review On The Relationship Between Oil Prices And Stock Prices In Turkey: New Evidences From Fourier Approach," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 6(1), pages 101-111.
    15. Sanya Ogunsakin & Isaac Tope Awe, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(4), pages 139-158, December.
    16. Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Mr. Oral Williams, 2011. "Global and Regional Spillovers to GCC Equity Markets," IMF Working Papers 2011/138, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Atanu Ghoshray and Tatiana Trifonova, 2014. "Dynamic Adjustment of Crude Oil Price Spreads," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    18. Mert URAL, 2016. "Modelling Crude Oil Price Volatility and the Effects of Global Financial Crisis," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 24(29).
    19. Meysam Azizi Kouchaksaraei & Hamed Movahedizadeh & Hoda Mohammadalikhani, 2016. "Determinant of the Relationship between Natural Gas Prices and Leading Natural Gas Countries¡¯ Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 246-253, April.
    20. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Do Oil Prices Affect Kuwait Sectoral Stock Prices? Non-Linear Cointegration Evidence," Working Papers 1141, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARMA-GARCH; Conditional Volatility; Oil price; Exchange Rate; Stock Market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-02-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.