IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2016-03-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effects of Oil Shocks on Turkish Macroeconomic Aggregates

Author

Listed:
  • Moayad Al Rasasi

    (Department of Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA)

  • Mustafa Yilmaz

    (Educational Policy Studies, School of Education, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA)

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of oil price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates of Turkey. We find evidence suggesting the influential role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates. In other words, we find that oil price shocks affect output growth negatively with a delay. However, higher oil prices are associated with higher inflation, and depreciating exchange rate. We also explore the role of asymmetric oil shocks on macroeconomic aggregates and find that both oil price increases and decreases are associated with a delayed lower output growth rate. Furthermore, we find oil price increases affect inflation positively with a delay. The appreciation of exchange rate appears with a delay due to oil price decreases

Suggested Citation

  • Moayad Al Rasasi & Mustafa Yilmaz, 2016. "The Effects of Oil Shocks on Turkish Macroeconomic Aggregates," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 471-476.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2016-03-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/2416/1653
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/2416/1653
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. AydIn, Levent & Acar, Mustafa, 2011. "Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1722-1731, March.
    2. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
    3. Berument, Hakan & Taşçı, Hakan, 2002. "Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 568-580.
    4. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
    5. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    6. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. C. Emre Alper & Orhan Torul, 2008. "Oil Prices, aggregate economic activity and global liquidity conditions: evidence from Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(6), pages 1-8.
    9. Lance J. Bachmeier & Inkyung Cha, 2011. "Why Don’t Oil Shocks Cause Inflation? Evidence from Disaggregate Inflation Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1165-1183, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asunci n Arner G erre, 2017. "The Spanish used Oils Market: A Vector Error Correction Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 1-10.
    2. Salah A. Alawadhi & Adedayo E. Longe, 2024. "Oil Price Fluctuation and their Impact on the Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Kuwait," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 375-386, May.
    3. Nagmi M. Moftah Aimer, 2016. "The Effects of Fluctuations of Oil Price on Economic Growth of Libya," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(2), pages 17-29, December.
    4. Moayad H. Al Rasasi, 2018. "The Response of G7 Real Exchange Rates to Oil Price Shocks," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 191-205, April.
    5. Tacinur AKCA, 2023. "Causal Relationship Between Transport Inflation with Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 245-260, January.
    6. Musavir Ul Habib, 2019. "An Econometric Analysis of Relationship between Economic Growth and Petroleum Consumption in India," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 8(2), pages 118-127, December.
    7. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Gadim-Ogli Hajiyev, 2021. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Real Estate Loans and Mortgage Loans in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 341-354.
    8. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun Mammadov & Fariz Ahmadov, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 97-102.
    9. Mohammad Aladwan & Mohammaad Almaharmeh & Husni Samara, 2023. "Modeling and Mediating the Interaction between Oil Prices and Economic Sectors Advancement: The Case of Middle East," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 51-60, March.
    10. Clement Oteng & Omowumi Iledare & Joshua Sebu, 2024. "Vulnerability of the Agricultural Commodity Markets in Ghana to Global Oil Price Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(1), pages 21582440231, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atems, Bebonchu & Kapper, Devin & Lam, Eddery, 2015. "Do exchange rates respond asymmetrically to shocks in the crude oil market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 227-238.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    3. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1527-1542, March.
    4. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(11), pages 730-739.
    5. Umar Bala & Lee Chin & Ghulam Mustafa, 2022. "Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 14-27.
    6. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Abubakar Lawan Ngoma & Normaz Wana Ismail & Zulkornain Yusop, 2016. "An Analysis of Real Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Five African Countries," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 51(2), pages 162-179, May.
    8. Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik & Mehmet Karaçuka & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "The Time-Varying Impact of External Shocks on the Consumer Price Components: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(4), pages 781-807, December.
    9. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0431 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    12. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
    13. Ozgur, Onder & Aydin, Levent & Karagol, Erdal Tanas & Ozbugday, Fatih Cemil, 2021. "The fuel price pass-through in Turkey: The case study of motor fuel price subsidy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. Uğur Akkoç & Anıl Akçağlayan & Gamze Kargın Akkoç, 2021. "The impacts of oil price shocks in Turkey: sectoral evidence from the FAVAR approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1147-1171, November.
    15. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    16. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
    17. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    18. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    19. Nicholas Apergis & Alper Aslan & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on Growth across US States," Working Papers 201459, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Togonidze, Sophio & Kočenda, Evžen, 2022. "Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).
    21. Muñoz, M. Pilar & Dickey, David A., 2009. "Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 857-866, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price Shocks; Economic Activity; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2016-03-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.