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The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Kazakhstan Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach

Author

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  • Nezir Kose

    (Department of Econometrics, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey,)

  • Sabit Baimaganbetov

    (Department of Economics, Akhmet Yassawi University, Kazakhstan.)

Abstract

This paper assesses empirically the asymmetric effects of real oil price shocks on the industrial production, real exchange rate and inflation in Kazakhstan for the monthly period 2000-2013 by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. SVAR analysis is carried out using the scaled model. The empirical findings show that the negative oil price shocks have a larger impact on Kazakhstan economic performance

Suggested Citation

  • Nezir Kose & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2015. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Kazakhstan Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1058-1064.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2015-04-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Haykel Tlili & Kais Tissaoui & Bassem Kahouli & Rabab Triki, 2024. "How volatility in the oil market and uncertainty shocks affect Saudi economy: a frequency approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
    3. Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Effects of the Oil Price Shock on Inflation: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 477-481, May.
    4. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2016. "Permanent and Temporary Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Policy, and Tradable Non-oil Sector: Case of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia," Working Papers 1609, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    5. Dobronravova, Elizaveta (Добронравова, Елизавета), 2018. "Monetary Policy Peculiarities in Countries with Natural Resources, with Significant Changes in Terms of Trade [Особенности Монетарной Политики В Странах, Наделенных Природными Ресурсами, При Значит," Working Papers 031811, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Katarzyna Czech & Ibrahim Niftiyev, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Oil-Dependent Countries’ Currencies: The Case of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, September.
    7. Fakhri Hasanov & Jeyhun Mikayilov & Cihan Bulut & Elchin Suleymanov & Fuzuli Aliyev, 2017. "The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Fatih Kaplan & Ayşe E. Ünal, 2020. "Industrial Production Index - Crude Oil Price Nexus: Russia, Kazakhstan And Azerbaijan," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 119-142, October –.
    9. Tomader Elhassan, 2021. "Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 579-585.
    10. Hassan Tawakol A. Fadol, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of the Macroeconomic Indicators Shocks on KSA Non-oil Exports 1970-2019: (SVAR) Analysis and (NARDL) Assessment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 118-128.
    11. Abdulaziz Hamad Algaeed, 2017. "The Effects of Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks on the Saudi Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 99-107.
    12. Karunanithi Kriskkumar & Niaz Ahmad Mohd Naseem & Wan Ngah Wan Azman-Saini, 2022. "Investigating the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Economic Growth in Malaysia: Applying Augmented ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Techniques," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    13. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Performance in Africa’s Oil Exporting Countries," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(5), pages 169-188, OCTOBER.
    15. Karunanithi Kriskkumar & Niaz Ahmad Mohd Naseem, 2019. "Analysis of Oil Price Effect on Economic Growth of ASEAN Net Oil Exporters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price Shocks; Structural Vector Autoregression; Asymmetric Effects; Kazakhstan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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