IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2020-06-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Impact of the Macroeconomic Indicators Shocks on KSA Non-oil Exports 1970-2019: (SVAR) Analysis and (NARDL) Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Hassan Tawakol A. Fadol

    (College of Business, Jouf University in KSA, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

Studies employ various methods to explain the presence of the Impact of the macroeconomic indicators shocks on non-oil exports, including applying models to the case of emerging economies. However, the non-oil exports have different determinants in some countries. To revisit this puzzle, we analyzed the Estimating the Impact of the macroeconomic indicators shocks on KSA non-oil exports: (SVAR) analysis and (NARDL) assessment. Short run and long run shocks between the selected variables and result s is checked through the SVAR, NARDL model. Our results confirm co-integration, positive shocks results show that macroeconomic indicators shocks have significantly influence on non-oil exports. The empirical results based on SVAR, NARDL most relationships are weak and negative except for non-oil exports, monetary reserves. Here we can observe the elasticities or contemporaneous relations between variables. We see negative relations between non-oil exports and GDP, Exchange Rate and inflation in the same interval, while an increase in non-oil exports has nearly no impact on both GDP, Exchange Rate and inflation. The results provide statistically, economics supported evidence that can guide policy makers regarding action priorities and identify other opportunities to facilitate reducing the Impact of the macroeconomic indicators shocks on non-oil exports in Saudi Arabia.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan Tawakol A. Fadol, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of the Macroeconomic Indicators Shocks on KSA Non-oil Exports 1970-2019: (SVAR) Analysis and (NARDL) Assessment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 118-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2020-06-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/10420/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/10420/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 852, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Luther G. Tweeten & C. Leroy Quance, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 342-352.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Muhammad Al-Jasser, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Saudi Arabia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 439-443, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    7. Robin C. Sickles & William C. Horrace (ed.), 2014. "Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4899-8008-3, July.
    8. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 35.
    9. Tweeten, Luther G & Quance, C Leroy, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 175-183, May.
    10. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    11. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2011. "Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 437, Bank of England.
    12. Nezir Kose & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2015. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Kazakhstan Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1058-1064.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yugang He & Xiaodan Gao & Renhong Wu & Yinhui Wang & Baek-Ryul Choi, 2021. "How Does Sustainable Rural Tourism Cause Rural Community Development?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Ilias Lekkos, 2003. "Cross‐sectional Restrictions on the Spot and Forward Term Structures of Interest Rates and Panel Unit Root Tests," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5‐6), pages 799-828, June.
    3. Mitch Kunce, 2022. "The Tenuous Ecological Divorce and Unemployment Link with Suicide: A U.S. Panel Analysis 1968-2020," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 1-2.
    4. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    5. Mahmoud MOURAD, 2022. "Impact of Welfare and Unemployment on the Crimes in the United States: Co-integration Analysis," Journal of Public Administration and Governance, Macrothink Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 120-120, December.
    6. Fousekis, Panos & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2016. "Vertical price transmission in the US beef sector: Evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 499-506.
    7. Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla, 2018. "Does Trade Liberalization Affect Energy Saving in Nigeria?," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 6(4), pages :493-515, December.
    8. Baillie, R. & Chung, C. & Tieslau, M., 1992. "The Long Memory and Variability of Inflation : A Reappraisal of the Friedman Hypothesis," Other publications TiSEM 49a709f4-608f-43c5-840b-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
    10. Hong, Yongmiao & Linton, Oliver & McCabe, Brendan & Sun, Jiajing, 2022. "A score statistic for testing the presence of a stochastic trend in conditional variances," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    11. Susanne M. Schennach, 2018. "Long Memory via Networking," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 2221-2248, November.
    12. Hallin, M. & van den Akker, R. & Werker, B.J.M., 2011. "A Class of Simple Distribution-free Rank-based Unit Root Tests (Revision of DP 2010-72)," Other publications TiSEM 004c9726-ec6a-4884-8238-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2000. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Fiscal Developments?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(5), pages 468-488, September.
    14. Mara Madaleno & Victor Moutinho, 2021. "Analysis of the New Kuznets Relationship: Considering Emissions of Carbon, Methanol, and Nitrous Oxide Greenhouse Gases—Evidence from EU Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-23, March.
    15. Adeola Y. Oyebowale, 2020. "Determinants of Bank Lending in Nigeria," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(3), pages 378-398, September.
    16. Roy, Rudra Prosad & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2022. "Commodity futures prices pass-through and monetary policy in India: Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    17. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Kleibergen, F., 1996. "Reduced Rank of Regression Using Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Other publications TiSEM 5caf1c0c-d988-4184-acf7-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Elliott, Graham, 2020. "Testing for a trend with persistent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 314-328.
    20. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Demographic changes, labor effort and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 169-188, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-Oil Exports; Inflation Rate; Monetary Reserves; GDP; SVAR; NARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2020-06-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.