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The Effects of the Oil Price Shock on Inflation: The Case of Kazakhstan

Author

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  • Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan.)

  • Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan.)

  • Artur Bolganbayev

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan)

  • Sabit Baimaganbetov

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan)

Abstract

Increases in oil prices cause inflation. Interest rates are expected to decrease as a result of the expansionary monetary policies of the central banks in response to the indirect effect of increasing oil prices on inflation. Because an increase in oil price creates an additional foreign currency inflow to Kazakhstan, this leads to the appreciation of its national currency tenge. Therefore, this study uses monthly Brent Oil Price (OP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) values for the period 2015:M1 2021:M11 to investigate the effect of oil price on inflation and real exchange rate in Kazakhstan. Analysis are performed using the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. The results showed that while the Real Effective Exchange Rate mostly affects the Oil Price, the Consumer Price Index variable affects the Real Effective Exchange Rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Effects of the Oil Price Shock on Inflation: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 477-481, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-03-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhazira Taibek & Indira Kozhamkulova & Almas Kuralbayev & Bagdat K. Spanova & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2023. "Analysis of the Effect of Oil and Energy Production on Health and Education Expenditures in Kazakhstan with Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 215-221, March.
    2. Aizhan Ibyzhanova & Zamzagul Sultanova & Zhanna T. Aliyeva & Karlygash Tastanbekova & Saken Ualikhanovich Abdibekov & Bagila Mustafayeva & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2024. "The Effect of Energy Production and Foreign Trade on the Economic Growth of Turkic Republics: A Study Using Panel Data Analysis Method," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 126-134, March.
    3. Meiramkul Saiymova & Marija Troyanskaya & Kulyash Shalgimbayeva & Zhanat Babazhanova & Roza Jumabekova, 2023. "The Vector Auto Regression Analysis of the Link between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Development for Turkey and Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 309-315, March.
    4. Ainur Yergazievna Yesbolova & Tolkyn Abdulova & Murat Nurgabylov & Sapargul Yessenbekova & Svetlana Turalina & Gulnara Baytaeva & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2024. "Analysis of the Effect of Renewable Energy Consumption and Industrial Production on CO2 Emissions in Turkic Republics by Panel Data Analysis Method," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 480-487, January.
    5. Bibigul Izatullayeva & Gulzhanat Tayauova & Gulnara Sadykova & Madina Toktibayeva & Altynbek Kenzhaliyev, 2023. "A Comparison of the Returns of Oil and Energy Companies Quoted in Kase and the Returns of the Kase Index, Exchange Rate, and Selected International Energy Indices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 395-402, January.
    6. Zamzagul Sultanova & Galimzhan A. Pazilov & Lyailya Baibulekova & Gulzhakhan Kassymbekova & Gulnar Lukhmanova & Gulmira Issayeva & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2024. "Comparative Analysis of the Volatility Structures of the Stock Prices of Energy Companies Traded on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange and International Gold and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 21-30, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Structural Vector Autoregression; Inflation; Real Effective Exchange Rate; Kazakhstan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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