IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2018-05-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gold - Silver Nexus: A Threshold Cointegration Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zouheir Ahmed Mighri

    (School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, P.R. Chin)

  • Majid Ibrahim Al Saggaf

    (School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, P.R. Chin)

Abstract

We investigate the dynamic relationship between the gold and silver prices using the Enders-Siklos threshold cointegration approach. Our data are the weekly prices of the gold and silver from January 1968 to May 2016. We find a, asymmetric threshold cointegration between these two series, instead of the linear cointegration well established in the literature. The short-term adjustment to the equilibrium shows an asymmetric effect according to the price deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Moreover, using an equilibrium adjustment path asymmetry test, we find that, in the short term, gold has a much faster reaction to negative deviations from long-term equilibrium than positive deviations.

Suggested Citation

  • Zouheir Ahmed Mighri & Majid Ibrahim Al Saggaf, 2018. "Gold - Silver Nexus: A Threshold Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 210-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2018-05-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/6838/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/6838/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera, 2007. "Econometric Models Of Asymmetric Price Transmission," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 349-415, April.
    3. Jonathan A. Batten & Cetin Ciner & Brian M. Lucey & Peter G. Szilagyi, 2013. "The structure of gold and silver spread returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 561-570, March.
    4. Chen, Haiqiang & Choi, Paul Moon Sub & Hong, Yongmiao, 2013. "How smooth is price discovery? Evidence from cross-listed stock trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 668-699.
    5. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Kuo, Shew-Huei & Enders, Walter, 2004. "The term structure of Japanese interest rates:: The equilibrium spread with asymmetric dynamics," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 84-98, March.
    8. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    9. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    10. Jochen Meyer & Stephan von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611, November.
    11. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Rohan Christie David, 2000. "Price discovery in strategically-linked markets: the case of the gold-silver spread," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 227-234.
    12. Dirk Baur & Duy Tran, 2014. "The long-run relationship of gold and silver and the influence of bubbles and financial crises," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1525-1541, December.
    13. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-484, November.
    14. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    16. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    17. Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 640-657, September.
    18. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    19. Sun, Changyou, 2011. "Price dynamics in the import wooden bed market of the United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 479-487, July.
    20. Shi-Miin Liu & Chih-Hsien Chou, 2003. "Parities and Spread Trading in Gold and Silver Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 899-911.
    21. Kucher, Oleg & McCoskey, Suzanne, 2017. "The long-run relationship between precious metal prices and the business cycle," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 263-275.
    22. repec:wyi:journl:002160 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
    24. Thompson, Mark A., 2006. "Asymmetric adjustment in the prime lending-deposit rate spread," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 323-329.
    25. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sami, Janesh, 2021. "Has the long-run relationship between gold and silver prices really disappeared? Evidence from an emerging market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2016. "Asymmetric price transmission within the Argentinean stock market: an asymmetric threshold cointegration approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1115-1149, November.
    2. Zouheir Ahmed Mighri & Majid Ibrahim Alsaggaf, 2019. "Asymmetric Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment between Oil Prices and Financial Stress," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 87-105.
    3. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    4. Riadh El Abed & Zouheir Mighri, 2021. "Nonlinear Cointegration and Asymmetric Adjustement between Economic policy uncertainty and Gold price: Evidence from the United States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1666-1680.
    5. Kourtzidis, Stavros A. & Tzeremes, Panayiotis & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2018. "Re-evaluating the energy consumption-economic growth nexus for the United States: An asymmetric threshold cointegration analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 537-545.
    6. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis in the Non-Linear STAR Framework," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(12), pages 851-860.
    7. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "On The Term Structure of South African Interest Rates: Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," MPRA Paper 67681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sun, Changyou, 2011. "Price dynamics in the import wooden bed market of the United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 479-487, July.
    9. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "On the term structure of South African interest rates: cointegration and threshold adjustment," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 300-321.
    10. Ning, Zhuo & Sun, Changyou, 2014. "Vertical price transmission in timber and lumber markets," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 17-32.
    11. Seiler, Volker, 2021. "China-to-FOB price transmission in the rare earth elements market and the end of Chinese export restrictions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Dirk Baur & Duy Tran, 2014. "The long-run relationship of gold and silver and the influence of bubbles and financial crises," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1525-1541, December.
    13. Judith Hillen, 2021. "Vertical price transmission in Swiss dairy and cheese value chains," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    14. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Asymmetries in Yield Curves: Some Empirical Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 79155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bairagi, S. & Mohanty, S., 2018. "Analysis of Price Transmission along the Cambodian Rice Value Chain," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277022, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. M. Iqbal Ahmed & Quazi Fidia Farah, 2021. "Adjustment dynamics between broker–dealer leverage and stock market: a threshold cointegration analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 121-144, July.
    17. Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac, 2012. "Spatial Price Transmission in the Regional Maize Markets in Ghana," MPRA Paper 49720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ilyasov, Jarilkasin & Götz, Linde & Akramov, Kamiljon T. & Dorosh, Paul A. & Glauben, Thomas, 2016. "Market integration and price transmission in Tajikistan’s wheat markets: Rising like rockets but falling like feathers?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1547, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
    20. Amba Oyon Claude Marius & Taoufiki Mbratana & Kane Gilles Quentin, 2017. "Assessing the current account sustainability in ECCAS economies: A dual cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1873-1894.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Threshold cointegration; price transmission; gold; silver;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2018-05-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.