IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2018-04-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric Responses of Stock Prices to Money Supply and Oil Prices Shocks in Turkey: New Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Halil Altintas

    (Department of Economics, Erciyes University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Kayseri, 38039, Turkey.)

  • Kassouri Yacouba

    (Department of Economics, Erciyes University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Kayseri, 38039, Turkey.)

Abstract

This study investigates how stock market prices react to oil prices and money supply shocks in Turkey using a nonlinear ARDL approach. We establish the time series properties of the data using both conventional linear unit root tests and the procedure advanced by Zivot-Andrews (1992) to consider the possible existence of endogenous break in the series. Empirical evidence revealed asymmetric cointegration through Wald statistics of Pesaran and Banerjee. Findings suggest asymmetric responses of Turkish stock market prices to oil prices and money supply shocks, confirming the importance of non-linearity in macro-finance variables. Namely, in the long-run, we find a significant negative relation between oil prices and stock market prices. Meanwhile, stock market prices react positively to negative (positive) shocks in money supply. The obtained evidence of the asymmetric behaviors of stock prices should be taken into account by stock market participants when dealing with their portfolio diversification strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Halil Altintas & Kassouri Yacouba, 2018. "Asymmetric Responses of Stock Prices to Money Supply and Oil Prices Shocks in Turkey: New Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 45-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2018-04-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/6546/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/6546/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Nandha, Mohan & Turkistani, Abdullah Q. & Alaitani, Muhammed Y., 2011. "Oil price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-55.
    2. Slah Bahloul & Mourad Mroua & Nader Naifar, 2017. "The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(1), pages 62-74, March.
    3. Boyer, M. Martin & Filion, Didier, 2007. "Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 428-453, May.
    4. Kraft, John & Kraft, Arthur, 1977. "Determinants of Common Stock Prices: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 417-425, May.
    5. Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2000. "The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 623-638, November.
    6. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    7. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2008. "Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 998-1010, May.
    8. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    9. Ying Huang & Feng Guo, 2008. "Macro shocks and the Japanese stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1391-1400.
    10. Ramaprasad Bhar & Biljana Nikolova, 2010. "Global Oil Prices, Oil Industry And Equity Returns: Russian Experience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(2), pages 169-186, May.
    11. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    12. Andrew T. Foerster, 2014. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-26.
    13. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    14. Shiu‐Sheng Chen, 2007. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 667-688, March.
    15. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
    16. El-Sharif, Idris & Brown, Dick & Burton, Bruce & Nixon, Bill & Russell, Alex, 2005. "Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 819-830, November.
    17. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1415-1435, March.
    18. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
    19. Zeina Alsalman Ana María Herrera, 2015. "Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Stock Market: Do Sign and Size Matter?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    20. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    21. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    22. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    23. G. Caginalp & M. Desantis, 2011. "Stock price dynamics: nonlinear trend, volume, volatility, resistance and money supply," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 849-861.
    24. Faff, Robert W. & Brailsford, Timothy J., 1999. "Oil price risk and the Australian stock market," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-87, June.
    25. Asmy, Mohamed & Rohilina, Wisam & Hassama, Aris & Fouad, Md., 2009. "Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Malaysia: An Approach of Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 20970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
    27. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    28. Maysami, Ramin Cooper & Koh, Tiong Sim, 2000. "A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 79-96, February.
    29. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2009. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 111-119.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Civcir, Irfan & Akkoc, Ugur, 2021. "Non-linear ARDL approach to the oil-stock nexus: Detailed sectoral analysis of the Turkish stock market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. SOLOMON PRINCE Nathaniel, 2020. "Does Exchange Rate Have Asymmetric Impact On Trade Balance? Fresh Insights From Combined Cointegration," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(1), pages 259-269, April.
    3. Jamel Boukhatem, 2021. "What drives local currency bond market development in Saudi Arabia: do macroeconomic and institutional factors matter?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Kashif Islam & Ahmad Raza Bilal & Zeeshan Saeed & Samina Sardar & Muhammad Husnain Kamboh, 2023. "Impact of government integrity and corruption on sustainable stock market development: linear and nonlinear evidence from Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2529-2556, August.
    5. Md Fouad Bin Amin & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2022. "Asymmetric Linkages of Oil Prices, Money Supply, and TASI on Sectoral Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    2. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    3. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    4. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock price returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," MPRA Paper 80495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han, 2011. "Oil prices and accounting profits of oil and gas companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 252-257.
    6. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2011. "Risk factors in oil and gas industry returns: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-542, May.
    7. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    8. Broadstock, David C. & Wang, Rui & Zhang, Dayong, 2014. "Direct and indirect oil shocks and their impacts upon energy related stocks," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 451-467.
    9. Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Sharif, Arshian & Aman, Ameenullah & Suki, Norazah Mohd & Salman, Asma & Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Angelidis, Timotheos & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2015. "US stock market regimes and oil price shocks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 132-146.
    11. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra & Boubaker, Sabri & Mirza, Nawazish, 2022. "The power play of natural gas and crude oil in the move towards the financialization of the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Moya-Martínez, Pablo & Ferrer-Lapeña, Román & Escribano-Sotos, Francisco, 2014. "Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 280-290.
    13. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    14. Nasim, Asma & Ullah, Subhan & Kim, Ja Ryong & Hameed, Affan, 2023. "Energy shocks and bank efficiency in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2013. "Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 116-138.
    16. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    17. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Broadstock, David C. & Cao, Hong & Zhang, Dayong, 2012. "Oil shocks and their impact on energy related stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1888-1895.
    19. David C. Broadstock & Ying Fan & Qiang Ji & Dayong Zhang, 2016. "Shocks and Stocks: A Bottom-up Assessment of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and the Returns of Chinese Firms," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1_suppl), pages 55-86, January.
    20. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Price; Oil Price; Money Supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2018-04-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.