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The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching

Author

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  • Slah Bahloul
  • Mourad Mroua
  • Nader Naifar

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to study the impact of conventional stock market return and volatility and various macroeconomic variables (including inflation rate, short-term interest rate, the slope of the yield curve and money supply) on Islamic stock markets returns for twenty developed and emerging markets using Markov switching regression models. The empirical results for the period 2002–2014 show that both developed and emerging Islamic stock indices are influenced by conventional stock indices returns and money supply for both the low and high volatility regimes. However, the other macroeconomic variables fail to explain the dynamics of Islamic stock indices especially in the high volatility regime. Similar conclusions are obtained by using the MS-VAR model.

Suggested Citation

  • Slah Bahloul & Mourad Mroua & Nader Naifar, 2017. "The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(1), pages 62-74, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bor:bistre:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:62-74
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    Cited by:

    1. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Gubareva, Mariya & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Spillover and risk transmission between the term structure of the US interest rates and Islamic equities," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Sharif, Arshian & Jermsittiparsert, Kittisak, 2020. "How oil prices, gold prices, uncertainty and risk impact Islamic and conventional stocks? Empirical evidence from QARDL technique," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Ghani, Maria & Guo, Qiang & Ma, Feng & Li, Tao, 2022. "Forecasting Pakistan stock market volatility: Evidence from economic variables and the uncertainty index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1180-1189.
    4. Sadeghi, Abdorasoul & Tayebi, Seyed Komail & Roudari, Soheil, 2023. "Financial markets, inflation and growth: The impact of monetary policy under different political structures," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 935-956.
    5. Lim, Siok Jin, 2020. "Portfolio diversification opportunities for U.S. Islamic investors with its trading partners when the world catches a cold: A Multivariate-GARCH and wavelet approach," MPRA Paper 103295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Ashraf, Muhammad Sajjad & Sharif, Arshian & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "How the price dynamics of energy resources and precious metals interact with conventional and Islamic Stocks: Fresh insight from dynamic ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Dene Hurley & Román Ferrer, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3569-3587, July.
    8. Mongi Arfaoui & Bechir Raggad, 2023. "Do Dow Jones Islamic equity indices undergo speculative pressure? New insights from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1582-1601, April.
    9. Irfan Djedovic & Edin Djedovic, 2019. "Risk-Reward Trade Off And Behavior Of Islamic And Conventional Stock Market Indices In Bosnia And Herzegovina," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 3-13, November.
    10. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 367-379, April.
    11. Mishra, Shekhar & Sharif, Arshian & Khuntia, Sashikanta & Meo, Muhammad Saeed & Rehman Khan, Syed Abdul, 2019. "Does oil prices impede Islamic stock indices? Fresh insights from wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 292-304.
    12. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2018. "Does Shariah index hedge against sentiment risk? Evidence from Indian stock market using time–frequency domain approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 20-35.
    13. Abdorasoul Sadeghi & Hussein Marzban & Ali Hussein Samadi & Karim Azarbaiejani & Parviz Rostamzadeh, 2022. "Financial intermediaries and speculation in the foreign exchange market: the role of monetary policy in Iran’s economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, December.
    14. Halil Altintas & Kassouri Yacouba, 2018. "Asymmetric Responses of Stock Prices to Money Supply and Oil Prices Shocks in Turkey: New Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 45-53.
    15. Delle Foglie, Andrea & Panetta, Ida Claudia, 2020. "Islamic stock market versus conventional: Are islamic investing a ‘Safe Haven’ for investors? A systematic literature review," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Islamic index return; Conventional index return; Macroeconomic variables; Markov switching regressions; MS-VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models

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