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The Contagion Effects of Sovereign Downgrades: Evidence from the European Financial Crisis

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  • Shaen Corbet

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland)

Abstract

This research examines the effects of sovereign downgrades on European financial markets between 2005 and 2012. Vector Autoregression (VAR) techniques are used to investigate the presence of contagion effects after a sovereign downgrade across equity indices, five year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and ten year government bonds of the investigated European states. Sovereign downgrades are found to be associated with an increase in equity returns, and cause significant increases in the cost of insuring debt through CDS and the yield of government debt. The Greek and Irish downgrades are to found to have significant reverberations throughout European financial markets. German CDS spreads are found to increase when a European state is downgraded, signalling their use by investors as a barometer of European-wide defaults. Though credit rating agencies clearly missed the European sovereign crisis prior to 2007, their rating downgrades are still found to cause significant effects within European financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaen Corbet, 2014. "The Contagion Effects of Sovereign Downgrades: Evidence from the European Financial Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 83-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2014-01-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Chunling Li & Khansa Pervaiz & Muhammad Asif Khan & Faheem Ur Rehman & Judit Oláh, 2019. "On the Asymmetries of Sovereign Credit Rating Announcements and Financial Market Development in the European Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Regulatory changes and long-run relationships of the EMU sovereign debt markets: Implications for future policy framework," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Stefano Caselli & Gino Gandolfi & Maria Gaia Soana, 2016. "The Impact of Sovereign Rating News on European Banks," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), pages 142-167, January.
    4. Elena Raluca MOISESCU (DUICAN) & Andrei GIURESCU, 2016. "Sovereign debt crisis. From challenges to solutions," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 195-202, Spring.
    5. Ekinci, Cumhur & Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen, 2019. "Analysing the dynamic influence of US macroeconomic news releases on Turkish stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 155-164.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign ratings; VAR; contagion; financial crisis; stock markets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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