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Memory and Anticipation

Author

Listed:
  • B. Douglas Bernheim
  • Raphael Thomadsen

Abstract

The introduction of memory imperfections into models of economic decision making creates a natural role for anticipatory emotions. Their combination has striking behavioural implications. The paper first shows that agents can rationally select apparently dominated strategies. We consider Newcomb's Paradox and the Prisoners' Dilemma. We provide a resolution for Newcomb's Paradox and argue it requires the decision maker to ascribe only a tiny weight to anticipatory emotions. For some ranges of parameters, it is possible to obtain cooperation in the Prisoners' Dilemma with probability arbitrarily close to unity. The second half of the paper provides a theory of reminders. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Douglas Bernheim & Raphael Thomadsen, 2005. "Memory and Anticipation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 271-304, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:115:y:2005:i:503:p:271-304
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    Cited by:

    1. Saori Chiba & Kaiwen Leong, 2016. "Behavioral Economics of Crime Rates and Punishment Levels," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 172(4), pages 727-754, December.
    2. Chalotte Saucet & Marie Claire Villeval, 2018. "Motivated Memory in Dictator Games," Working Papers 1804, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    3. Koster, Paul & Peer, Stefanie & Dekker, Thijs, 2015. "Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 256-265.
    4. Chen, Si, 2012. "Optimistic versus Pessimistic--Optimal Judgemental Bias with Reference Point," MPRA Paper 50693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Krumer, Alex & Lechner, Michael, 2016. "Midweek Effect on Performance: Evidence from the German Soccer Bundesliga," Economics Working Paper Series 1609, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    6. John Smith, 2009. "Imperfect Memory and the Preference for Increasing Payments," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 165(4), pages 684-700, December.
    7. Saucet, Charlotte & Villeval, Marie Claire, 2019. "Motivated memory in dictator games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 250-275.
    8. Benabou, Roland & Tirole, Jean, 2007. "Identity, Dignity and Taboos: Beliefs as Assets," IZA Discussion Papers 2583, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Page, Lionel & Page, Katie, 2010. "Last shall be first: A field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 186-198, February.
    10. Yilmaz Kocer, 2010. "Endogenous Learning with Bounded Memory," Working Papers 1290, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    11. Roland Bénabou, 2013. "Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 429-462.
    12. Jean-Pierre Dubé & Xueming Luo & Zheng Fang, 2015. "Self-Signaling and Prosocial Behavior: a Cause Marketing Mobile Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 21475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Charlotte Saucet & Marie Claire Villeval, 2019. "Motivated memory in dictator games," Post-Print halshs-02193604, HAL.
    14. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November.
    15. Gottlieb, Daniel, 2014. "Imperfect memory and choice under risk," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 127-158.
    16. Jean-Pierre Dubé & Xueming Luo & Zheng Fang, 2017. "Self-Signaling and Prosocial Behavior: A Cause Marketing Experiment," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(2), pages 140-156, March.
    17. Dag Sommervoll, 2013. "Sweet self-deception," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 73-88, May.
    18. Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D., 2016. "A neuroeconomic theory of memory retrieval," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 198-205.
    19. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Filippos Papakonstantinou & Jonathan A. Parker, 2017. "Optimal Time-Inconsistent Beliefs: Misplanning, Procrastination, and Commitment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1318-1340, May.
    20. Macera, Rosario, 2014. "Dynamic beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-18.
    21. Matthew G. Nagler, 2023. "Thoughts matter: a theory of motivated preference," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 94(2), pages 211-247, February.
    22. Adriani, Fabrizio & Sonderegger, Silvia, 2009. "Why do parents socialize their children to behave pro-socially? An information-based theory," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1119-1124, December.
    23. John Smith, 2007. "Cognitive Dissonance, Imperfect Memory and the Preference for Increasing Payments," Departmental Working Papers 200705, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    24. Alex Krumer & Michael Lechner, 2018. "Midweek Effect On Soccer Performance: Evidence From The German Bundesliga," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 193-207, January.

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