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Global Weakness Index – reading the economy’s vital signs during the COVID-19 crisis

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  • Pérez Quirós, Gabriel

Abstract

The Global Weakness Index (GWI) is a real-time measure of how weak the global economy is. We use this index to assess on the spot how the repercussions of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis are playing out. After the release of certain soft indicators on March 2, 2020 the GWI increased sharply – much faster than in the 2008 crisis. And at the time of writing it remains at a record high. JEL Classification: E32, E37, C22

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2020. "Global Weakness Index – reading the economy’s vital signs during the COVID-19 crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 72.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2020:0072:
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    2. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2018. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-611.
    3. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Eyno Rots, 2020. "Real-time weakness of the global economy: a first assessment of the coronavirus crisis," Working Papers 2015, Banco de España.
    4. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
    5. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-996, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Armando Silva & Zbigniew Korzeb & Pawe? Niedzió?ka, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Portuguese banking system. Linear ordering method," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 37(159), pages 226-241, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor models; International Business Cycle; Non-linearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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