IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-19-00071.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An explorative analysis of Italy banking financial stability

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Foglia

    (Department of Economics, “G.d''Annunzio†University of Chieti-Pescara)

  • Eliana Angelini

    (Department of Economics, “G.d''Annunzio†University of Chieti-Pescara)

Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative measure for the financial stability of Italy banking sector. First, we construct an indicator that summarizes the information about the health of Italy's banking system, the Bank Condition Index (BCI). The index is constructed with capital adequacy, asset quality, earnings and liquidity (CAEL) indicators. The major advantage of BCI is that can be useful for initial identification of bank soundness and can be helpful to identify the principal areas of weakness. Furthermore, we apply AR model to evaluate the predictive power of the BCI on GDP growth. The results identify that the BCI is an important predictor of real economic activity. Finally, we study the relationship between the BCI and systemic risk measures (DCoVaR, SRISK, DCI), finding that an increase of systemic risk implies a reduction of bank-financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2019. "An explorative analysis of Italy banking financial stability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1294-1308.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-19-00071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2019/Volume39/EB-19-V39-I2-P123.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Borri & Marianna Caccavaio & Giorgio Di Giorgio & Alberto Maria Sorrentino, 2014. "Systemic Risk in the Italian Banking Industry," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 43(1), pages 21-38, February.
    2. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 613-633, December.
    3. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2015. "Financial stability and economic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-40.
    4. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    5. Arena, Marco, 2008. "Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
    6. Cihak, Martin & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Feyen, Erik & Levine, Ross, 2013. "Financial Development in 205 Economies, 1960 to 2010," Journal of Financial Perspectives, EY Global FS Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 17-36.
    7. Giuseppe Grande & Stefano Neri & Stefan Siviero, 2013. "The sovereign debt crisis and the euro area," Workshop and Conferences 14, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
    9. of England, Bank, 2016. "Markets and operations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 56(4), pages 212-221.
    10. Jacob Kleinow & Andreas Horsch & Mario Garcia-Molina, 2017. "Factors driving systemic risk of banks in Latin America," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 211-234, April.
    11. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    12. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2014. "Financial conditions index and credit supply shocks for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1644, European Central Bank.
    13. Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet, 2011. "The structural fragility of financial systems: Analysis and modeling implications for early warning systems," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 270-290, August.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5euk7d0f8t81prfu1k2sspdcok is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Magdalena Petrovska & Elena Mucheva Mihajlovska, 2013. "Measures of Financial Stability in Macedonia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 2(3), pages 85-110.
    16. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2017. "Money market funds, shadow banking and systemic risk in United Kingdom," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 163-171.
    18. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Martin Feldstein, 1991. "The Risk of Economic Crisis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld91-2.
    20. Diego Nicolas Moccero & Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Laurent Maurin, 2014. "Financial Conditions Index and Identification of Credit Supply Shocks for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 297-321, December.
    21. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2014. "The role of on- and off-balance-sheet leverage of banks in the late 2000s crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 3-22.
    22. Albertazzi, Ugo & Ropele, Tiziano & Sene, Gabriele & Signoretti, Federico Maria, 2014. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 387-402.
    23. Annalisa Di Clemente, 2018. "Estimating the Marginal Contribution to Systemic Risk by A CoVaR†model Based on Copula Functions and Extreme Value Theory," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 47(1), pages 69-112, February.
    24. repec:cbk:journl:v:2:y:2013:i:2:p:85-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando & Strobl, Sascha & Vähämaa, Sami, 2017. "Measuring systemic risk: A comparison of alternative market-based approaches," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 40-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chang, Carolyn W. & Li, Xiaodan & Lin, Edward M.H. & Yu, Min-Teh, 2018. "Systemic risk, interconnectedness, and non-core activities in Taiwan insurance industry," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 273-284.
    2. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Davydov, Denis & Vähämaa, Sami & Yasar, Sara, 2021. "Bank liquidity creation and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Marina Resta, 2016. "VaRSOM: A Tool to Monitor Markets' Stability Based on Value at Risk and Self‐Organizing Maps," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1-2), pages 47-64, January.
    5. Jokivuolle, Esa & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2018. "Testing the systemic risk differences in banks," Research Discussion Papers 13/2018, Bank of Finland.
    6. Borri, Nicola & Giorgio, Giorgio di, 2022. "Systemic risk and the COVID challenge in the european banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Kurter, Zeynep O., 2024. "How macroeconomic conditions affect systemic risk in the short and long-run?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Jokivuolle, Esa & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2018. "Testing the systemic risk differences in banks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2018, Bank of Finland.
    9. Martin Eling & David Antonius Pankoke, 2016. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 249-284, September.
    10. Laurentiu Dumitru ANDREI & Petre BREZEANU & Sorin-Marius DINU & Tiberiu DIACONESCU & Constantin ANGHELACHE, 2019. "Correlations and Turbulence of the European Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 88-100, March.
    11. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2021. "The triple (T3) dimension of systemic risk: Identifying systemically important banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 7-26, January.
    12. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    13. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
    14. Wu, Shan & Tong, Mu & Yang, Zhongyi & Zhang, Tianyi, 2021. "Interconnectedness, systemic risk, and the influencing factors: Some evidence from China’s financial institutions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    15. Kurter, Zeynep O., 2022. "How macroeconomic conditions affect systemic risk in the short and long-run?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1407, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    16. Wang, Xiaoting & Hou, Siyuan & Shen, Jie, 2021. "Default clustering of the nonfinancial sector and systemic risk: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 196-208.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Pankoke, David, 2014. "Sophisticated vs. Simple Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers on Finance 1422, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    19. Laura Garcia-Jorcano & Lidia Sanchis-Marco, 2023. "Measuring Systemic Risk Using Multivariate Quantile-Located ES Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-72.
    20. Abdelkader DERBALI & Ali LAMOUCHI, 2020. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: The triple (T3) dimension of systemic risk: identifying systemically important banks in Eurozone Abstract: Editor’s Note - This paper has been retracted from our journal due to bogu," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 87-122, June.
    21. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Composite Index; Bank vulnerability; Financial Stability; Systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-19-00071. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.