IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2019i1p88-100.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Correlations and Turbulence of the European Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Laurentiu Dumitru ANDREI

    (University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Petre BREZEANU

    (University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Sorin-Marius DINU

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Tiberiu DIACONESCU

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Constantin ANGHELACHE

    (University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

This paper uses stock market data to compute the turbulence index at the European level. We also compute the dynamic matrix of correlations for all pairs of country indices in our sample. Running regressions of the turbulence index on dynamic correlations we attempt to identify the extent to which some particular pairs of correlations may influence the turbulence index more than others, on average. We can therefore infer that portfolios that contain the pairs of indices with the highest explanatory power will have higher exposure to systemic risk when compared with compares that do not contain the respective pairs.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurentiu Dumitru ANDREI & Petre BREZEANU & Sorin-Marius DINU & Tiberiu DIACONESCU & Constantin ANGHELACHE, 2019. "Correlations and Turbulence of the European Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 88-100, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2019:i:1:p:88-100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_19/rjef1_2019p88-100.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Neumann, Sascha & Bostandzic, Denefa, 2014. "Systemic risk and bank consolidation: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 165-181.
    2. Battaglia, Francesca & Gallo, Angela, 2013. "Securitization and systemic risk: An empirical investigation on Italian banks over the financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 274-286.
    3. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Radu LUPU & Adrian Cantemir CALIN, 2017. "Risk Generating Industries for European Stock Markets," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 51(4), pages 5-17.
    4. Corsi, Fulvio & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide & Trapin, Luca, 2018. "Measuring the propagation of financial distress with Granger-causality tail risk networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-36.
    5. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    6. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2014. "The role of on- and off-balance-sheet leverage of banks in the late 2000s crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 3-22.
    7. Simona MOAGAR-POLADIAN & Victoria FOLEA & Mihai PAUNICA, 2017. "Competitiveness of EU Member States in Attracting EU Funding for Research and Innovation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 150-167, June.
    8. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    9. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Paolo Tasca & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Diversification and Financial Stability," Working Papers CCSS-11-001, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    11. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    12. Fabio Caccioli & Matteo Marsili & Pierpaolo Vivo, 2009. "Eroding market stability by proliferation of financial instruments," Papers 0910.0064, arXiv.org.
    13. Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Shaghaghi, Ali Rais, 2012. "‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 627-646.
    14. Xu, Qifa & Chen, Lu & Jiang, Cuixia & Yuan, Jing, 2018. "Measuring systemic risk of the banking industry in China: A DCC-MIDAS-t approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 13-31.
    15. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    16. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Assessing the risk of banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    17. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando & Strobl, Sascha & Vähämaa, Sami, 2017. "Measuring systemic risk: A comparison of alternative market-based approaches," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 40-46.
    18. Battiston, Stefano & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 138-149.
    19. Corina SAMAN, 2016. "The Impact of the US and Euro Area Financial Systemic Stress to the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 170-183, December.
    20. F. Caccioli & M. Marsili & P. Vivo, 2009. "Eroding market stability by proliferation of financial instruments," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 467-479, October.
    21. Amil Dasgupta, 2004. "Financial Contagion Through Capital Connections: A Model of the Origin and Spread of Bank Panics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1049-1084, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Radu LUPU & Iulia LUPU & Tanase STAMULE & Mihai ROMAN, 2022. "Entropy as Leading Indicator for Extreme Systemic Risk Events," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 58-73, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    2. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Wu, Fei & Zhang, Dayong & Zhang, Zhiwei, 2019. "Connectedness and risk spillovers in China’s stock market: A sectoral analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    4. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Hüser, Anne-Caroline, 2016. "Too interconnected to fail: A survey of the Interbank Networks literature," SAFE Working Paper Series 91, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    6. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    7. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.
    8. Davydov, Denis & Vähämaa, Sami & Yasar, Sara, 2021. "Bank liquidity creation and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Chowdhury, Biplob & Dungey, Mardi & Kangogo, Moses & Sayeed, Mohammad Abu & Volkov, Vladimir, 2019. "The changing network of financial market linkages: The Asian experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-92.
    11. Jokivuolle, Esa & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2018. "Testing the systemic risk differences in banks," Research Discussion Papers 13/2018, Bank of Finland.
    12. Jokivuolle, Esa & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2018. "Testing the systemic risk differences in banks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2018, Bank of Finland.
    13. Martin Eling & David Antonius Pankoke, 2016. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 249-284, September.
    14. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando & Strobl, Sascha & Vähämaa, Sami, 2017. "Measuring systemic risk: A comparison of alternative market-based approaches," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 40-46.
    15. Morelli, David & Vioto, Davide, 2020. "Assessing the contribution of China’s financial sectors to systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Financial systemic risk measurement based on causal network connectedness analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 290-307.
    17. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Výrost, Tomáš, 2020. "Increasing systemic risk during the Covid-19 pandemic: A cross-quantilogram analysis of the banking sector," EconStor Preprints 222580, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Dungey, Mardi & Luciani, Matteo & Veredas, David, 2018. "Systemic risk in the US: Interconnectedness as a circuit breaker," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 305-315.
    19. Wu, Shan & Tong, Mu & Yang, Zhongyi & Zhang, Tianyi, 2021. "Interconnectedness, systemic risk, and the influencing factors: Some evidence from China’s financial institutions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    20. Matteo Smerlak & Brady Stoll & Agam Gupta & James S Magdanz, 2015. "Mapping Systemic Risk: Critical Degree and Failures Distribution in Financial Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    turbulence; dynamic correlations; MIDAS regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2019:i:1:p:88-100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.