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Estimating the Marginal Contribution to Systemic Risk by A CoVaR†model Based on Copula Functions and Extreme Value Theory

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  • Annalisa Di Clemente

Abstract

In this paper, we quantify the contribution to systemic risk of a single financial institution by utilizing a analytical framework based on the principles of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for modelling the marginal distributions and on the properties of copula functions for describing the dependence structure between the financial system and the single financial institution. Among the several systemic risk measures proposed nowadays by academics and estimated by public data, we choose to adopt as systemic risk metric the Conditional Value†at†Risk (CoVaR). We select a co†risk measure like the CoVaR because of its macro†dimension that allows us to integrate the dependence structure of the single financial institution and of the whole financial system in the systemic risk measurement. While the copula functions have been utilized in some pioneer studies on this area, the EVT principles have not yet been implemented in such a context of systemic risk contribution measurement.

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  • Annalisa Di Clemente, 2018. "Estimating the Marginal Contribution to Systemic Risk by A CoVaR†model Based on Copula Functions and Extreme Value Theory," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 47(1), pages 69-112, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:47:y:2018:i:1:p:69-112
    DOI: 10.1111/ecno.12095
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gauthier, Céline & Lehar, Alfred & Souissi, Moez, 2012. "Macroprudential capital requirements and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 594-618.
    2. Girardi, Giulio & Tolga Ergün, A., 2013. "Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3169-3180.
    3. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
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    2. Annalisa Di Clemente, 2019. "Comparing Different Systemic Risk Measures for European Banking System," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(1), pages 35-53, January.
    3. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2019. "An explorative analysis of Italy banking financial stability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1294-1308.
    4. Ortega-Jiménez, Patricia & Pellerey, Franco & Sordo, Miguel A. & Suárez-Llorens, Alfonso, 2024. "Probability equivalent level for CoVaR and VaR," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 22-35.
    5. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2021. "The triple (T3) dimension of systemic risk: Identifying systemically important banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 7-26, January.
    6. Abdelkader DERBALI & Ali LAMOUCHI, 2020. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: The triple (T3) dimension of systemic risk: identifying systemically important banks in Eurozone Abstract: Editor’s Note - This paper has been retracted from our journal due to bogu," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 87-122, June.

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