IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sajeco/v92y2024i4p475-497.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of fiscal rules policy credibility in West African Economic and Monetary Union countries

Author

Listed:
  • Dakpoulé Da
  • Mahamadou Diarra

Abstract

More than a quarter century after implementing fiscal rules, and despite extensions of the convergence phase, West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries are still unable to comply with the fiscal rules established. In addition, these countries are facing multiple shocks, exerting pressure on public finances. Based on this context, this paper empirically investigates the drivers of fiscal rules policy credibility of seven WAEMU countries over the period 1994–2019. Using two measures of fiscal rules policy credibility and pooled mean group (PMG) econometric estimator of dynamic panel, we find that internal and external macroeconomic variables are the main determinants of fiscal rules policy credibility in WAEMU countries in the long run. The institutional and political variables have mitigated effects. Specifically, we find that debt accumulation, economic activity fluctuation (gross domestic product), fiscal space reduction, and international commodity price fluctuation harm fiscal rules policy credibility, meaning that these variables deviate the fiscal policy from its target value. Our results suggest that WAEMU governments should pay attention to global shocks to reduce their macroeconomic vulnerabilities and better manage their economic resilience. In addition, they should better manage debt by allocating it to productive sectors, or improve the quality of institutions by establishing a genuine democracy that improves decision‐making and reduces deviant behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Dakpoulé Da & Mahamadou Diarra, 2024. "Determinants of fiscal rules policy credibility in West African Economic and Monetary Union countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 92(4), pages 475-497, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:92:y:2024:i:4:p:475-497
    DOI: 10.1111/saje.12384
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12384
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/saje.12384?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pina, Álvaro M. & Venes, Nuno M., 2011. "The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-546, September.
    2. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
    3. Torsten Persson & Gerard Roland & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Comparative Politics and Public Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1121-1161, December.
    4. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    5. Anne Frémont & Jacques Mélitz & Frédéric Zumer, 2000. "Discrimination par le marché entre les dettes des États membres de l'UEM," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 72(1), pages 39-69.
    6. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    7. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    8. Baxter, Marianne, 1985. "The role of expectations in stabilization policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 343-362, May.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/763 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    11. Nicolas End, 2020. "Rousseau's social contract or Machiavelli's virtue? A measure of fiscal credibility," Working Papers halshs-03078704, HAL.
    12. Mr. Nicolas End & Mr. Gee Hee Hong, 2022. "Trust What You Hear: Policy Communication, Expectations, and Fiscal Credibility," IMF Working Papers 2022/036, International Monetary Fund.
    13. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h14g91k is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Jirí Jonáš & Mr. David Hauner, 2007. "Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit: The Case of New EU Member States," IMF Working Papers 2007/001, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Charles Wyplosz, 2011. "Fiscal Discipline: Rules Rather Than Institutions," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217(1), pages 19-30, July.
    16. Blackburn, Keith & Christensen, Michael, 1989. "Monetary Policy and Policy Credibility: Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-45, March.
    17. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    19. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
    20. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eo6779thqgm5r489m6u1i2a0o is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    22. von Hagen, Jurgen & Harden, Ian J., 1995. "Budget processes and commitment to fiscal discipline," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 771-779, April.
    23. Chuku Chuku & Anthony Simpasa & Jacob Oduor, 2018. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Commodity Price Fluctuations in African Economies," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(4), pages 329-345, December.
    24. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Tatiana Acar, 2018. "Fiscal credibility and disagreement in expectations about inflation: evidence for Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 826-843.
    25. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    26. Kuncoro Haryo, 2015. "Does the Credible Fiscal Policy Support the Prices Stabilization?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 137-156, June.
    27. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    28. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 91-115, March.
    2. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Marcela Eslava, 2011. "The Political Economy Of Fiscal Deficits: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 645-673, September.
    4. Arroyo Marioli, Francisco & Fatas, Antonio & Vasishtha, Garima, 2024. "Fiscal policy volatility and growth in emerging markets and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 758-777.
    5. Carranza-Ugarte, Luis & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique, 2023. "Rethinking fiscal rules," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 833-857.
      • Luis Carranza Ugarte & Julian Diaz Saavedra & Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, 2021. "Rethinking fiscal rules," ThE Papers 21/14, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    6. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2013. "Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2307-2321.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    10. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Maria Neicheva, 2006. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    13. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Lavinia Mustea & Thierry Yogo, 2016. "Output effects of fiscal stimulus in Central and Eastern European countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 108-127, January.
    14. Guerguil, Martine & Mandon, Pierre & Tapsoba, René, 2017. "Flexible fiscal rules and countercyclical fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 189-220.
    15. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2022. "Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants," Working Papers REM 2022/0219, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Pierre Mandon, 2014. "Evaluating Treatment Effect and Causal Effect of Fiscal Rules on Procyclicality New assessments on old debate: rules vs. discretion," CERDI Working papers halshs-01015756, HAL.
    17. Pierre Mandon, 2014. "Evaluating Treatment Effect and Causal Effect of Fiscal Rules on Procyclicality New assessments on old debate: rules vs. discretion," Working Papers halshs-01015760, HAL.
    18. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2010. "Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence, and discretion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 503-530, December.
    19. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "The global dimension to fiscal sustainability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 137-150, June.
    20. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2024. "Inflation targeting and fiscal policy volatility: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:92:y:2024:i:4:p:475-497. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.