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Consensus-building in Electoral Competitions: Evidence from Papal Elections

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  • Maxime Menuet

    (LEO UMR 7322)

Abstract

Papal elections are outstanding grounds to study consensus-building in an electoral competition. In contrast to standard two-round elections, the conclave lasts until a candidate receives the two-thirds of votes. In this paper, we argue that this election process can be viewed as a "war of attrition" between two fractions: the "conservatives" and the "progressives". We show that the duration of conclaves positively depends on the political polarization of the College of Cardinals. This result is consistent with empirical evidences. Through an original data set, we show that the duration of conclaves show an upward trend with respect to a polarization parameter.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxime Menuet, 2017. "Consensus-building in Electoral Competitions: Evidence from Papal Elections," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2826-2834.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00816
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maxime Menuet, 2020. "Is a Long War Desirable? Optimal Debt Concessions in Attrition Warfare," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 139, pages 105-130.
    2. Hendricks, Ken & Weiss, Andrew & Wilson, Charles A, 1988. "The War of Attrition in Continuous Time with Complete Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(4), pages 663-680, November.
    3. Laszlo A. Koczy & Balazs Sziklai, 2013. "Electing the Pope," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1315, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-1.
    5. Padovano, Fabio & Venturi, Larissa, 2001. "Wars of Attrition in Italian Government Coalitions and Fiscal Performance: 1948-1994," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(1-2), pages 15-54, October.
    6. Enrico Spolaore, 2004. "Adjustments in Different Government Systems," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 117-146, July.
    7. Bliss, Christopher & Nalebuff, Barry, 1984. "Dragon-slaying and ballroom dancing: The private supply of a public good," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 1-12, November.
    8. Richard W. Ault & Robert B. Ekelund & Robert D. Tollison, 1987. "The Pope and the Price of Meat: A Public Choice Perspective," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 399-413, August.
    9. Fabio Padovano & Ronald Wintrobe, 2013. "The Dictatorship of the Popes," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 365-377, August.
    10. Leighton Vaughan Williams & David Paton, 2015. "Forecasting the Outcome of Closed‐Door Decisions: Evidence from 500 Years of Betting on Papal Conclaves," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 391-404, August.
    11. Maxime MENUET, 2016. "Does Overconfidence Drag Out War?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2394, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pope; Papal Conclave; Election; War of attrition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory

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