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Stock Returns-Inflation Relation In India, 1980-2004

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  • SHANMUGAM, K.R.
  • MISRA, Biswa Swarup

Abstract

This study contributes to the stock returns-inflation relation literature in developing countries by revisiting the issue with reference to an emerging economy, namely India. More specifically, it tests whether the Indian stock market provides an effective hedge against inflation using monthly data on real stock return, inflation and real activity from April 1980 to March 2004 and a two-step estimation procedure. Results of the study indicate that (i) the Indian stock market reflects future real activity; (ii) the negative stock returns-inflation relation emerges from the unexpected component of the inflation and (iii) this negative relation vanishes when we control for the inflation-real activity relation, thereby providing a strong support for Fama’s proxy effect hypothesis. The split period analyses provided support for accepting Fama’s hypothesis only in pre-reform period. In the post reform period, stock market serves as a hedge against inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • SHANMUGAM, K.R. & MISRA, Biswa Swarup, 2009. "Stock Returns-Inflation Relation In India, 1980-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:9:y:2009:i:1_17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan GUPTA & Roula INGLESI-LOTZ, 2012. "Macro Shocks and Real US Stock Prices with Special Focus on the “Great Recession”," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Return; Inflation; Fama’s proxy effect hypothesis; hedge;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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