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Estimating multistate transition rates from population distributions

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Schoen

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Stefan H. Jonsson

    (Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

The ability to estimate transition rates (or probabilities) from population distributions has many potential applications in demography. Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) has been used for such estimation, but lacks a meaningful behavioral, or demographic, foundation. Here a new approach, Relative State Attractiveness (RSA), is advanced. It assumes that states become more (or less) attractive, and that rates respond accordingly. The RSA estimation procedure is developed and applied to model and actual data where the underlying rates are known. Results show that RSA provides accurate estimates under a wide range of conditions, usually yielding values similar to those produced by IPF. Both methods are then applied to U.S. data to provide new estimates of interregional migration between the years 1980 and 1990.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Schoen & Stefan H. Jonsson, 2003. "Estimating multistate transition rates from population distributions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:9:y:2003:i:1
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.9.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moffitt, Robert, 1993. "Identification and estimation of dynamic models with a time series of repeated cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 99-123, September.
    2. P. Nair, 1985. "Estimation of period-specific gross migration flows from limited data: Bi-proportional adjustment approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 22(1), pages 133-142, February.
    3. D Philipov, 1978. "Migration and Settlement in Bulgaria," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 10(5), pages 593-617, May.
    4. Andrei Rogers & Frans Willekens & And Raymer, 2001. "Modeling interregional migration flows: Continuity and change," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3-4), pages 231-263.
    5. Carl Schmertmann, 2002. "A Simple method for estimating age-specific rates from sequential cross sections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 287-310, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Guillot & Yan Yu, 2009. "Estimating health expectancies from two cross-sectional surveys," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(17), pages 503-534.
    2. Robert Schoen, 2020. "Dynamic Multistate Models With Constant Cross-Product Ratios: Applications to Poverty Status," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(2), pages 779-797, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    estimation techniques; multistate models; entropy; iterative proportional fitting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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