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Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries

Author

Listed:
  • Arnstein Aassve

    (Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy)

  • Nicolò Cavalli

    (Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy; Nuffield College, University of Oxford, OX1 1NF Oxford, United Kingdom)

  • Letizia Mencarini

    (Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy; Department of Management and Technology, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy)

  • Samuel Plach

    (Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy)

  • Seth Sanders

    (Department of Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853)

Abstract

Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (−9.1%), Spain (−8.4%), and Portugal (−6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnstein Aassve & Nicolò Cavalli & Letizia Mencarini & Samuel Plach & Seth Sanders, 2021. "Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(36), pages 2105709118-, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:118:y:2021:p:e2105709118
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Natalie Nitsche & Aiva Jasilioniene & Jessica Nisén & Peng Li & Maxi S. Kniffka & Jonas Schöley & Gunnar Andersson & Christos Bagavos & Ann Berrington & Ivan Čipin & Susana Clemente & Lars Dommermuth , 2022. "Pandemic babies? Fertility in the aftermath of the first COVID-19 wave across European regions," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Singh, Parvati & Gemmill, Alison & Bruckner, Tim-Allen, 2023. "Casino-based cash transfers and fertility among the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians in North Carolina: A time-series analysis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Anna Kurowska & Anna Matysiak & Beata Osiewalska, 2023. "Working from Home During Covid-19 Pandemic and Changes to Fertility Intentions Among Parents," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-31, December.
    5. Myunggu Jung & D. Susie Lee, 2023. "Subnational variations in births and marriages during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(30), pages 867-882.
    6. Sofia Trommlerová & Libertad González, 2024. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Abortions in Spain," Working Papers 1448, Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. Koka, Katerina & Rapallini, Chiara, 2023. "Italy’s demographic trap: Voting for childcare subsidies and fertility outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Regional trends in births during the COVID-19 crisis in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain," SocArXiv mnwh8, Center for Open Science.
    9. Mooi-Reci, Irma & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Vera-Toscano, Esperanza & Wooden, Mark, 2023. "The impact of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).

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